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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 工厂化水产养殖溶解氧预测模型优化 农业机械学报 2016,47 (1) 273-278
Position: Home > Articles > Optimization of Prediction Model of Dissolved Oxygen in Industrial Aquaculture Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery 2016,47 (1) 273-278

工厂化水产养殖溶解氧预测模型优化

作  者：
朱成云;刘星桥;李慧;宦娟;杨宁
单  位：
江苏大学电气信息工程学院
关键词：
工厂化水产养殖;溶解氧;预测模型;最小二乘支持向量机;分布估计法;参数优化
摘  要：
为准确预测溶解氧变化趋势,降低水产养殖风险,提出混沌变异的分布估计(CMEDA)算法优化最小二乘支持向量机模型(LSSVR),提高了溶解氧预测精度。并对粒子群算法和遗传算法分别优化的LSSVR模型(PSOLSSVR、GA-LSSVR)以及传统的LSSVR模型与CMEDA优化的LSSVR模型(CMEDA-LSSVR)进行了比较研究。利用该模型对江苏省扬中市红鲷鱼工厂化养殖鱼塘溶解氧含量进行了预测。实验结果表明,CMEDA-LSSVR的预测精度高于其他3种算法,CMEDA-LSSVR、PSO-LSSVR、GA-LSSVR、LSSVR 4种模型预测精度评价指标平均绝对百分比误差分别为0.32%、1.27%、1.98%和2.56%。实际应用结果表明该模型可以为鱼塘水质决策管理提供依据,具有一定的应用价值。
译  名：
Optimization of Prediction Model of Dissolved Oxygen in Industrial Aquaculture
作  者：
Zhu Chengyun;Liu Xingqiao;Li Hui;Huan Juan;Yang Ning;School of Electrical and Information Engineering,Jiangsu University;School of New Energy and Electronic Engineering,Yancheng Teachers University;
关键词：
industrial aquaculture;;dissolved oxygen;;prediction model;;least squares support vector regression;;estimation of distribution algorithm;;parameter optimization
摘  要：
Dissolved oxygen affects the growth status of fishes directly in aquaculture,so a prediction model to determine the future changing trend of dissolved oxygen was set up. When the predicted values of dissolved oxygen were below the safety value,the farmer can start oxygen increasing machine in advance to maintain the safety of fishes. The proposed dissolved oxygen prediction model was based on the least squares support vector regression( LSSVR) model with chaotic mutation to improve the estimation of distribution algorithm( CMEDA) to find optimal parameters( γ and σ) of LSSVR. Because these two parameters can significantly affect the performance of LSSVR,the other three parameter optimization methods,that means,particle swarm optimization( PSO) algorithm,genetic algorithm( GA) and the traditional LSSVR,were used to compare with CMEDA algorithm. The mean absolute percentage errors of the prediction results of four models were 0. 32%,1. 27%,1. 98% and 2. 56%,respectively. The CMEDA-LSSVR model has a higher prediction accuracy and more reliable performance than the other models. In order to make farmers use prediction model conveniently,a dissolved oxygen prediction system GUI based on Matlab was designed. Farmers download the history data from remote monitoring system by web browser as training data and testing data,the prediction results of different time would be calculated and displayed on the GUI. The prediction model was used in Yangzhong,Jiangsu Province,China,and it performed well. It helps farmer to make decision and reduce aquaculture risks.

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