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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 利用树轮重建临沂地区1851年以来10月份气温变化 河南农业科学 2016,45 (5) 71-76
Position: Home > Articles > Tree-ring-based Reconstruction of Temperature in October since 1851 AD in Linyi Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences 2016,45 (5) 71-76

利用树轮重建临沂地区1851年以来10月份气温变化

作  者：
段芋竹;赵兴云;张卫国
单  位：
临沂大学资源环境学院;重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院;西南林业大学/国家高原湿地研究中心
关键词：
临沂;银杏;年表;气候重建
摘  要：
为了研究临沂地区的历史气候变化,测定了临沂市郯城县新村乡的银杏树轮宽度,用COFECHA交叉定年质量控制程序对定年和测量结果检验合格后,利用ARSTAN树轮年表研制程序建立银杏树轮宽度标准化年表、差值年表和自回归年表。结果表明,标准化年表比其他2个年表包含更多气候信息,适宜进行树轮气候学研究。银杏树轮宽度标准化年表与气象数据的相关性分析表明,树轮宽度与多数月份的平均温度呈正相关,与多数月份的降水量呈负相关。利用银杏树轮宽度与气候因子的相关性重建了临沂地区1851—2012年10月的平均气温,其大致可以分为3个阶段,第一阶段为1851—1878年,此阶段气温变化幅度较大;第二阶段为1879—1950年,此阶段气温波动小,整体呈波动下降趋势,但不显著;第三阶段为1950年以后,此阶段气温整体呈波动上升趋势,且上升趋势越来越明显。该重建结果不仅延伸了临沂地区现有的气象观测记录,而且为研究当地历史时期气候变化提供了参考依据。
译  名：
Tree-ring-based Reconstruction of Temperature in October since 1851 AD in Linyi
作  者：
DUAN Yuzhu;ZHAO Xingyun;ZHANG Weiguo;College of Geography and Tourism,Chongqing Normal University;College of Resource and Environment,Linyi University;National Plateau Wetlands Research Center , Southwest Forestry University;
关键词：
Linyi;;Ginkgo biloba;;chronology;;climate reconstruction
摘  要：
The purpose of the article was to study the history of climate change in Linyi. According to the tree-ring samples of Ginkgo biloba collected from Xincun in Tancheng county,Linyi,tree ring widths had been detected based on the accurately determining time. After the assay was approved by the quality control procedure of COFECHA cross-determining time,ARSTAN annual tree-ring table developing process had been used to construct the standardization chronology,residual chronology,and autoregressive chronology. According to the research,the standardization chronology contained more information about the temperature compared to the other two chronologies. The standardization chronology about tree ring widths and the correlation analysis about meteorological data showed that tree ring width was positively correlated with mean temperatures of most months,while it was significantly negative with mean precipitations of most months. The correlation between tree ring widths and climatic factors were used to reconstruct themean temperature of October from 1851 to 2012 in the Linyi,and the data about the mean temperature were classified as three stages: the first stage was the time during the period from 1851 to 1878 with a big fluctuation of temperatures; the second stage was the time from 1879 to 1950 with a small fluctuation of temperatures,and the temperature had a decrease trend overall; the third stage was the time since 1950,during which the temperature presented an upward trend overall,and this rising trend became more obvious.This reconstructed result not only extended the current record of meteorologic observation in the area of Linyi,but also provided basic statistics and reference frame to the research about climate change at the local during historical period.

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