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Position: Home > Articles > The Grey Markov Forecasting Model of Total Grain Crop Yield in Xiancheng Area Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences 2000,28 (4) 554-556

宣城地区粮食总产的灰色马尔柯夫链预测方法

作  者:
陈平;潘荣山;李来根
单  位:
宣城行署气象局
关键词:
产量预测;灰色GM(1,1)模型;马尔柯夫链;转移概率
摘  要:
使用灰色马尔柯夫链预测方法预报宣城地区粮食总产 ,其结果不仅时效好 ,而且既能反映出趋势产量 ,又能反映出气象产量 ,预报准确率比单纯使用灰色GM(1,1)模型显著提高。 1998、1999年试报误差均小于 1.5 %。
译  名:
The Grey Markov Forecasting Model of Total Grain Crop Yield in Xiancheng Area
作  者:
Chen Ping et al (Xiancheng Prefecture Meteorological Bureau, Xianzhou 242000)
关键词:
Yield forecast, Grey GM(1,1) model, Markov,Transfer probability?
摘  要:
Using the grey Markou to forecast total grain crop yield in Xiancheng Prefecture, the method was not only time early, but also can reflect the yield trend as wall as meteorological yield. The accuracy was significantly improved with the method more than simple grey GM(1,1) model. The forecasting error in both 1998 and 1999 was only 1.5 percent,respectively.

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