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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 基于有机元素含量的猪粪热值预测模型 广东农业科学 2015,42 (12) 168-173
Position: Home > Articles > Construction calorific value model for pig manure based on organic element contents Guangdong Agricultural Sciences 2015,42 (12) 168-173

基于有机元素含量的猪粪热值预测模型

作  者：
喻斌斌;谭鹤群
单  位：
华中农业大学工学院
关键词：
猪粪;有机元素;热值;预测模型
摘  要：
探讨利用猪粪有机元素含量预测猪粪热值的可行性,建立基于C、H、N、S、O等5种有机元素含量的高、低位热值预测模型。采集了160个猪粪样品,利用EA3000型元素分析仪和IKA-C2000型氧弹量热仪分别测定其C、H、N、S、O元素的含量和高、低位热值。相关分析表明,C、H、N这3种元素的含量与热值之间存在极显著相关,而S、O这2种元素含量与热值之间的相关不显著;利用120个猪粪样品的测定结果,采用多元线性回归分析建立的基于C、H、N含量的热值预测模型可以较准确地利用碳、氢、氮预测猪粪热值,高位热值和低位热值预测模型的决定系数R2分别为0.836和0.785。用40个样品对热值模型进行外部验证,高位热值和低位热值均方根误差RMSE分别为621.31、620.85 J/g,相对均方根误差RRMSE分别为3.74%和4.06%。结果表明,多元线性回归法建立的基于有机元素含量的猪粪热值预测模型的预测结果较准确,利用猪粪的元素含量预测其热值是可行的。
译  名：
Construction calorific value model for pig manure based on organic element contents
作  者：
YU Bin-bin;TAN He-qun;College of Engineering, Huazhong Agricultural University;
关键词：
pig manure;;organic elements;;calorific value;;prediction model
摘  要：
To discuss the feasibility of using organic element contents of pig manure to predict calorific value,the paper built a prediction model of gross calorific value and net calorific value based on the contents of organic elements. 160 pig manure samples were collected, and their C,H,N,S,O element contents were measured by EA3000 and gross calorific value and net calorific value were measured by IKA-C2000 bomb calorimeters. Simple correlation analysis result showed that the contents of C,H,N had very significantly positive correlation with calorific value, while the contents of S and O had no significantly positive correlation with calorific value. 120 samples were selected to build the model, results indicated that the calorific value prediction model based on C,H,N element contents using multiple linear regression analysis could accurately use C,H,N to predict calorific value of pig manure. The determination coefficient of the prediction model of gross calorific value and net calorific value were 0.836 and 0.785 respectively. In the 40 samples used for the external validation, the root-mean-square error of gross calorific value was 621.31 J/g, and the relative root-mean-square error was 3.74%; the root-mean-square error of net calorific value was 620.85 J/g, and the relative root-mean-square error was 4.06%. It was concluded that the calorific value prediction model of pig manure based on organic element contents by built using multiple linear regression analysis method could predict the gross and net calorific values accurately.

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