单 位：
吉林大学地下水资源与环境教育部重点实验室
关键词：
第二松花江流域;降水量;Mann-Kendall检验;Morlet小波分析;Hurst指数法
摘 要：
利用线性回归方法、11a滑动平均、Mann-Kendall检验、Morlet小波分析以及Hurst指数法,分析了第二松花江流域1936～2010年降水量序列变化特征及趋势。结果表明,研究区近75年内降水量呈下降趋势,平均每10年减少6.22 mm,年内秋季降水量下降最为显著;年降水量显著突变年为1951年和1965年,前者突变方向为由多到少,后者为由少到多;研究区年降水量具有4、10、29年的周期,其中29年周期最为显著,其次为10年周期;Hurst值表明,研究区未来一段时间内降水总体将呈下降趋势,持续性中等,年内四季中,除冬季呈微弱的反持续性外,其他三季降水量均具有正的持续性。
译 名：
Characteristics Analysis of 75-years Precipitation Change in the Second Songhua River Basin
作 者：
WU Ya-nan et al(Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment,Ministry of Education,Jilin University,Changchun,Jilin 130021)
关键词：
The Second Songhua River Basin;Precipitation;Mann-Kendall test;Morlet wavelet;Hurst index method
摘 要：
With the linear regression method,11-year moving average method,Mann-Kendall test,Morlet wavelet analysis and Hurst index,this paper analyzed the characteristics and trends of precipitation of the Second Songhua River Basin from 1936 to 2010.The results showed that the precipitation of the Second Songhua River Basin in the past 75 years appeared downward trend,especially in autumns,and the precipitation decreased by 6.22 mm every 10 years;the annual precipitation decreased significantly in 1951 while increased significantly in 1965;annual precipitation showed 4a,10a,29a cycles while the 29a cycle was the most obvious,followed by the 10a cycle;Hurst value indicated that the precipitation will appear downward trend in future time on the whole and it has a general persistence;for each season,winter has a slightly anti-persistence and other seasons all has general persistence.
