单 位：
北京林业大学自然保护区学院;北京林业大学水土保持学院
关键词：
年降雨;径流响应;多尺度;突变点检验;潮白河流域
摘 要：
为揭示不同空间尺度上,径流对降雨的响应以及降雨对不同时期径流变化的影响程度,采用泰森多边形法,计算潮白河流域及其各个子流域的平均年降水量,并应用Mann-Kendall趋势检验,计算潮白河流域1957—2001年的径流突变点和变化趋势,使用回归分析来计算降水-径流之间影响关系的强弱。结果表明:在于不同尺度的子流域年径流变化在波动的幅度和平稳程度上具有差异,但差异并不明显。从整体趋势上看,径流在1960—1970年之间,呈现显著下降趋势,而在1990年之后,则有所回升;而在1970—1980年期间,呈现一定的波动性,变化趋势不明显。径流对降雨的多尺度回归结果显示,随着流域尺度的增大,降雨-径流的关系逐渐减弱。在较小尺度的流域,降雨与径流的联系更加紧密,气候因素在小尺度流域对径流的影响更为突出;而在大尺度的流域中,影响径流的因素则更为复杂,降雨量变化并不能很好的解释径流量的改变。此外,在不同时期降雨-径流关系仍然存在一定的差异性。径流变化处于平稳期与上升期时,对降雨响应更强,径流的下降,则受雨量变化影响较小,受其他气候因素与土地利用因素影响更多。一般认为,人类活动和气候变化是影响径流的两个因素,综合本文分析,在较大尺度流域和径流下降的时期,人类活动对径流的影响更加显著。因此,为保证潮白河流域及其子流域的产流量,对人类活动的有效管理,如优化土地利用,合理水资源配置等是必不可少的。
译 名：
Multi-scale analysis on precipitation-runoff relationship in Chaobaihe Basin
作 者：
Liu Jiakai;Zhang Zhenming;Yan Guoxin;Yu Xinxiao;School of Nature Conservation,Beijing Forestry University;School of Soil and Water Conservation,Beijing Forestry University;
关键词：
precipitation;;runoff;;multi-scale;;change point;;Chaobaihe Basin
摘 要：
[Background] Climate variations,especially the changes of precipitation are considered as a main factor of runoff decrease. However,previous studies reported that the feedback of runoff to the precipitation varied in different areas and time periods. It might be also influenced by the basins' scales.This work is to reveal the relationship between runoff and precipitation in different spatial-temporal scales in Chaobaihe Basin,the major water resource area for Beijing,from 1957 to 2001. [Methods] The climate data was from meteorological stations of China Meteorological Administration while the runoff data was from hydrological stations of Chaobaihe Basin. The precipitation series of each sub-basin were calculated by Thiessen polygon method,and Mann-Kendall trend test was used to identify the change trends and abrupt change points. At last,the relationship between precipitation-runoff were analyzed using regression analysis. [Results] The runoff change trend in each sub-basin was slightly differentfrom each other,differing in the extent of fluctuations and degree of stability,however,the difference was not significant. According to the analysis of abrupt change points,the 44 years was divided into 3periods: runoff increase period,decline period and stable period. The results suggested that the runoff decreased sharply from 1960 to 1970 and after 1990 the runoff increased slightly,while from 1970 to1990,the runoff fluctuated greatly and did not show obvious rules. On the other hand,based on the Pearson correlation coefficient from regression analysis between precipitation and runoff,the value became smaller as the sub-basin scale increased. This meant that precipitation affected the small basins more significantly,and the affecting factors in the large basins were more complex. The larger the basin area was,the weaker the correlation between runoff and precipitation was. In addition,the relations also showed differences in different period. The Pearson correlation coefficients in increase and stable period were larger than that in the decrease period. This difference indicated that the responses of runoff to the precipitation in increase and stable period were much stronger than in decline period. Increase of runoff was deeply influenced by precipitation while the decrease of runoff was affected more by other factors.[Conclusions] Human activities and climate changes are two factors that influence the runoff. In Chaobaihe Basin and its sub-basins,increasing precipitation leads to the increase of runoff while human activities should be responsible for the runoff decreasing. Besides,in small-scale basins,precipitation variation could explain the change of runoff very well,however in large-scale basins,human activities might be the main reason causing the changes of runoff. Thus,in order to guarantee the water yield,management of human activities such as optimization the land use and reasonable utilization of water resources is crucially important.
