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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 汉江流域土地利用变化与水生态系统服务:2032年情景预测分析 天津农业科学 2024 (5) 59-66
Position: Home > Articles > Land Use Change and Water Ecosystem Services in the Han River Basin: Scenario Analysis to 2032 Tianjin Agricultural Sciences 2024 (5) 59-66

汉江流域土地利用变化与水生态系统服务:2032年情景预测分析

作  者：
胡晓庆
单  位：
长江大学经济与管理学院
关键词：
汉江流域;土地利用变化;水生态系统服务;遥感生态指数(RSEI)
摘  要：
为了对2012年和2032年汉江流域在不同SSPS情景下土地利用变化及其对水生态系统服务的影响进行了系统性分析,采用FLUS和InVEST模型,对比分析了SSP1和SSP3两种情景下土地利用变化及其对水生态系统服务的影响.结果表明:在SSP1情景下,由于合理的土地利用规划和管理,土地利用变化幅度较小;在SSP3情景下,因社会经济发展水平较低和人口增长率较高,土地利用变化幅度较大;土地利用类型变化主要体现为建设用地和水域面积增加,以及林地、耕地和草地面积减少;产水服务和水质净化服务评估显示,产水深度普遍高于2012年,氮、磷元素负荷量普遍低于2012年,表明土地利用变化对水生态系统服务产生明显影响;遥感生态指数(RSEI)评估结果与产水服务和水质净化服务的变化趋势一致,证实土地利用变化对水生态系统服务的影响.综上所述,逐步回归模型分析揭示了影响水生态系统服务的多种因素,其中土地利用类型、降水量和温度是主要影响因素.这些结果可为汉江流域的土地利用规划和水生态系统服务管理提供科学依据,并为其他类似流域的可持续发展策略制定提供参考.
译  名：
Land Use Change and Water Ecosystem Services in the Han River Basin: Scenario Analysis to 2032
单  位：
School of Economics and Management,Yangtze University,Jingzhou,Hubei 434023,China
关键词：
Hanjiang River Basin%land use change%water ecosystem service%Remote Sensing Ecological Index(RSEI)
摘  要：
In order to systematically analyze land use change and its impact on water ecosystem services in Hanjiang River Basin under different SSPS scenarios from 2012 to 2032,FLUS and InVEST models were used to compare and analyze the land use change and its impact on water ecosystem services under SSP1 and SSP3 scenarios.The results showed that the range of land use change was small because of reasonable land use planning and management in the SSP1 scenario.In the SSP3 scenario,due to the low level of social and economic development and the high population growth rate,the range of land use change was large.The change of land use type was mainly reflected in the increase of construction land and water area,and the decrease of forest land,cultivated land and grassland area.The evaluation of water production services and water purification services showed that the depth of water production was generally higher than that in 2012,and the load of nitrogen and phosphorus was generally lower than that in 2012,indicating that land use change had a distinct impact on water ecosystem services.The results of remote sensing ecological index(RSEI)were consistent with the trends of water production services and water purification services,which confirmed the impact of land use change on water ecosystem services.In conclusion,the stepwise regression model analysis revealed a variety of factors affecting water ecosystem services,among which land use type,precipitation and temperature were the main factors.These results provided scientific basis for land use planning and water ecosystem service management in the Hanjiang River Basin,and provided reference for the formulation of sustainable development strategies in other similar basins.

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