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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 基于多目标控制的苕溪流域农业产业结构调整 浙江大学学报(农业与生命科学版) 2019 (1) 66-74
Position: Home > Articles > Agricultural production structure adjustment based on a multi-objective control in the Tiaoxi watershed Journal of Zhejiang University (Agriculture and Life Sciences) 2019 (1) 66-74

基于多目标控制的苕溪流域农业产业结构调整

作  者：
叶真男;王飞儿;嵇灵烨;俞洁
单  位：
浙江省环境监测中心;浙江大学环境与资源学院
关键词：
多目标规划模型;面源污染;农业产业结构;污染减排
摘  要：
利用多目标规划模型,以农业面源污染减排为目标,以农业经济发展和农产品需求保障等为约束,开展苕溪流域农业产业结构优化,基于2014年流域农业产业结构及排污现状,设置减产型、保产型、增产型3种不同发展情景。结果表明,在3种情景下农业面源等标污染减排量从大到小依次为减产型>保产型>增产型,但在不同地区存在一定的差异。产业结构优化结果显示,流域内产业结构变动幅度较大的趋势为露天蔬菜向设施蔬菜转型,猪牛的养殖规模大量缩减而羊的养殖规模适度扩大,而水稻种植、淡水养殖等变化幅度相对较小。在不同情景方案下水质预测结果同样显示,减产型方案对水质的改善优于保产型与增产型,但相较于保产型提升幅度不大。综合考虑流域面源污染控制需求、农业经济产出与水环境质量提升效果,保产型方案更加符合当前流域农业经济发展与环境保护的目的。
译  名：
Agricultural production structure adjustment based on a multi-objective control in the Tiaoxi watershed
作  者：
YE Zhennan;WANG Fei'er;JI Lingye;YU Jie;College of Environmental and Resource Sciences,Zhejiang University;Zhejiang Environmental Monitoring Center;
单  位：
YE Zhennan%WANG Fei'er%JI Lingye%YU Jie%College of Environmental and Resource Sciences,Zhejiang University%Zhejiang Environmental Monitoring Center
关键词：
multi-objective programming model;;non-point source pollution;;agricultural production structure;;pollution reduction
摘  要：
The optimization of agricultural production structure is an important way to control the agricultural non-point source(NPS) pollution. In this paper, a multi-objective programming model was used to optimize the agricultural production structure in the Tiaoxi watershed, with the objective of agricultural NPS pollution reduction. The development of agricultural economy and the demand for agricultural products were chosen as the constraints in the model. According to the agricultural output in the year of 2014, three schemes including less output, medium output and more output were optimized by the multi-objective programming model. The results showed that the reduction of agricultural NPS pollution load in the three schemes from high to low were less output scheme, medium output scheme, more output scheme, respectively. However, the reduction varied among different areas. The optimized results showed that the transformation of outdoor vegetable cultivation to facility vegetable cultivation was obvious compared with 2014. The scale of pigs and cattle culture decreased significantly, while sheep culture increased moderately. The adjustment of paddy and aquaculture was slight.The results of water quality prediction under different schemes also showed that the improvement of water quality under the less output scheme was better than the others, but it was not obvious as compared with the medium output scheme. Taking the control demand of non-point source pollution, the economic output of agriculture and the improvement effect of water environment quality into consideration, the medium output scheme is better for the current agricultural economic development and environmental protection in this watershed.

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