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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 区域泥石流活动性的灰尘色预测——以金川县为例 水土保持学报 1992,6 (3) 59-65
Position: Home > Articles > Grey Forecast of Regional Activity of Debris Flow—Instanced by Jinchuan County,Sichuan Province Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 1992,6 (3) 59-65

区域泥石流活动性的灰尘色预测——以金川县为例

作  者：
崔鹏
单  位：
中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
关键词：
金川县;泥石流活动;预测;灰色系统
摘  要：
正确地预测给定地区未来泥石流的活动性是制定该地区经济发展规划必要的科学依据。由于影响泥石流形成的因素具有复杂性和不确定性。而灰色预测理论通过一系列的数学变换,能从这些不确定因素中挖掘出尽可能多的信息,因而,可以较好地预测泥石流的活动性。该文简述了灰色预测的基本原理。通过对金川县95条沟谷型泥石流沟的泥石流活动性考察资料的分析,分别建立了泥石流活动强度的灰色预测模型和泥石流活动时期的灰色预测模型 (?)_((k+1))~((1))=7.7975e~(0.1909k)-4.3975,(?)_((k+1))~((1))=254.6492e~(0.1466k)-228.6492 这两个模型的方差比F和小误差率P均满足条件F<0.35和P>0.95,模型预测精度好。用上两式对金川县未来泥石流强烈活动期的发生时间和泥石流活动强度进行了预测,取得了较为满意的结果。
译  名：
Grey Forecast of Regional Activity of Debris Flow—Instanced by Jinchuan County,Sichuan Province
作  者：
Cui Peng (Chengdu Institute of Mountain Disasters and Environment, Academia Sinica and Ministry of Water Conservancy, Chengdu, 610015)
关键词：
Jinchuan County activity of debris flow forecast grey system
摘  要：
To correctly forecast the future activities of debris flow in a given region is a necessary scientifical basis for making-out an economic developmental plan in the region. The formative factor of debris flow are very complicated and some of them are uncertain. Through a series of mathematical transformations, grey forecast theory can excavate the most information from these uncertain complicated factors. Thus, it may better forecast the activities of debris flow. In this paper, the fundamental of grey forecasting is simply discussed. By analysing the investigation information of debris flow action of 95 debris flow ravines made in Jinchuan County, Sichuan Province, the grey forecasting models of debris flow intensity and of debris flow active period are as follows: (?)_((k+1))~((1))=7975e~(0.1909k)-4.3975, (?)_((k+1))~(1)=254.6492e~(0.1466k)-228.6492 For the two equations, F(the ratio of root-mean-square deveation of remainder errors to that of original data) and P (probability of nonexceedance of small-errors) meet the conditions of F<0.35 and P>0.95. The models have a high accuracy in prediction. The occurrence time and debris flow intensity of coming active period of debris flow in Jinchuan County has been predicted by the forecasting models. The results are satisfactory.

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