关键词：
植胶农户;种植意愿;影响因素;二元Logistic模型;对策
摘 要：
【目的】分析农户种植橡胶的意愿及其影响因素,为保障我国橡胶产业健康稳定发展提供理论依据。【方法】以海南省和云南省西双版纳州442个农户调查数据为基础,建立二元Logistic回归模型,从农户个体特征、橡胶生产情况、销售环境和技术培训4个方面分析影响农户植胶意愿的因素,并提出相关的对策建议。【结果】最低销售价格、橡胶资产权属、户主教育水平及是否参加过培训对农户橡胶种植意愿有显著影响。2011~2012年橡胶最低销售价格越高,农户橡胶种植意愿越强烈;拥有橡胶林地及其地面资产的农户,相对承包橡胶林的农户,橡胶种植意愿更弱;教育程度较高的农户更倾向于种植橡胶以外的经济作物;参加过技术培训的农户橡胶种植意愿更强烈;农户的橡胶种植意愿随着种植面积扩大先增后降,表现出适度规模经营的理性选择。【建议】应推动农村合作组织发展,发展林下经济、加快土地流转,加强技术研发与推广、降低劳动强度,完善技术服务体系建设,以提高农户橡胶种植意愿,推动我国橡胶产业持续健康发展。
译 名：
Analysis on smallholders' willingness to plant rubber and its influence factors in China
作 者：
HE Chang-hui;LIU Rui-jin;YANG Lin;Rubber Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences;
关键词：
rubber-planting farmer;;planting willingness;;influence factor;;binomial logistic model;;countermeasure
摘 要：
【Objective】The present study was conducted to investigate willingness of smallholders to plant rubber and its influencing factors, in order to provide theoretical basis for steady and healthy development of rubber industry.【Method】The binomial logistic regression model was established on the basis of survey data on 442 householders. Then the main factors affecting smallholders' willingness to plant rubber were analyzed from four aspects including farmer individual characteristics, rubber planting status, marketing circumstances and technical training. 【Result 】The result shows that,the sale prices, rubber asset ownership, smallholders' educational level and participation in the technical training had significant impact on willingness of smallholders. In addition, during 2011-2012, the higher minimal selling price of rubber prices was, the stronger willingness smallholders had. And the smallholders owning rubber plantations and ground asset had weaker willingness to plant rubber than renter of rubber plantations. The householders at the higher educational level tended to plant economic crop instead of rubber trees. Besides, the smallholders who had participated in technical training had stronger willingness to plant rubber, and smallholders' willingness first increased and then decreased with the increase of planting area, this showed that the moderate operation scale tended to be selected reasonably. 【Suggestion】In order to improve willingness of smallholders to plant rubber and promote continuous healthy development of rubber industry, some suggestions were put forward, which included promoting development of rural cooperative organization, developing understory economy, accelerating land circulation, strengthening technology research and development, reducing work intensity, perfecting technical service system.
