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基于CMS模型的中国水果出口增长因素分析

作  者:
温思美;苏国宝
单  位:
华南农业大学经济管理学院
关键词:
水果出口;CMS模型;竞争力效应;影响因素
摘  要:
本文采用1999—2010年水果产品贸易数据,应用恒定市场份额模型(CMS模型)对中国水果产品出口贸易进行阶段性分析表明,在考察期内,水果出口的增长来源分布为结构效应占31.71%、竞争力效应占25.48%、二阶效应占42.81%;从发展趋势来看,市场效应、交互效应、整体竞争效应、增长效应、动态结构效应不断强化;商品效应、具体竞争效应、纯二阶效应则不断弱化;促进中国水果出口需要优化出口品种结构、强化水果质量营销及转换竞争力提升模式。
译  名:
Decomposition of China Fruit Export Based on Constant Market Share Model
作  者:
WEN Simei and SU Guobao
摘  要:
This paper uses fruit trade data during the 1999—2010,which come from the United Nations Statistical Office,then,makes use of constant market share model(CMS model) to periodically analyzed of fruit exports to China.In the total study period,the distribution of fruit sources of export growth: Structural effects of 31.71%,competitive effect of 25.48%,second-order effect of 42.81%.From the development trend,market effects,interactive effects,the overall effects of competition,growth effect,constantly strengthening effect in the dynamic structure;goods effect,specific effects of competition,pure second-order effect is continuously weakening,for which we need to optimize the export product structure,strengthen the quality of fruit to enhance the competitiveness of marketing and conversion mode.

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