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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 近22年来象山港海域水环境变化趋势及R/S预测研究 海洋湖沼通报 2010 (1) 115-120
Position: Home > Articles > THE VARIATION TREND OF SEAWATER ENVIRONMENT OF XIANGSHAN HARBOR AND STUDY OF THEIR R/S FORECASTING IN RECENT 22 YEARS Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology 2010 (1) 115-120

近22年来象山港海域水环境变化趋势及R/S预测研究

作  者：
张丽旭;赵敏;付旭强;蔡燕红
单  位：
上海师范大学;宁波海洋环境监测中心站;河南省禹州市环境保护局;国家海洋局东海环境监测中心
关键词：
象山港;水环境变化;趋势检验;R/S预测
摘  要：
选择CODMn、DIN、PO4-P作为反映象山港海域水环境状况的主要环境参数,建立22 a来(1984—2005)象山港海域CODMn、DIN和PO4-P年平均浓度的时间序列,用平均差值法、最小二乘法和自回归滑动平均法3种趋势分析方法,统计检验了其变化趋势,并用重标极差分析法(R/S分析法),预测了在当前情景下象山港海域未来各项水环境参数的变化趋势特征。结果表明:近22 a来象山港海域CODMn年平均浓度则呈降低的趋势,而DIN和PO4-P的年平均浓度则呈增加的趋势,CODMn降低比DIN和PO4-P增加更明显;根据R/S预测分析,未来象山港海域CODMn的降低趋势可能会出现逆转,呈现升高的趋势,而DIN和PO4-P可能仍将保持逐渐升高的趋势,N:P比值将会进一步扩大,N和P的比例失调状况会进一步加剧。
译  名：
THE VARIATION TREND OF SEAWATER ENVIRONMENT OF XIANGSHAN HARBOR AND STUDY OF THEIR R/S FORECASTING IN RECENT 22 YEARS
作  者：
ZHANG Lixu1,ZHAO Min2,FU Xuqiang3,and CAI Yanhong4(1.East China Sea Monitoring Center,State Oceanic Administration,Shanghai 200137,China;2.Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai,200234,China;3.Yuzhou City Environment protection Administration,Yuzhou 461670,China;4.Ningbo Sea Environment Monitoring Center,Ningbo 315040,China)
关键词：
Xiangshan Harbor;variation of water environment;trend testing;R/S forecasting
摘  要：
In the paper,CODMn,DIN,and PO4-P were selected as main parameters reflecting water environment in Xiangshan Harbor.Time sequence of annual mean CODMn,DIN,and PO4-P was established in recent 22 years.The long-term variation trend of them was tested by using three statistical methods which conclude the average difference method,the least square method,and self-regression slope AR(1) process.The characteristic of variation trend about all water environmental parameters of Xiangshan Harbor in the future was forecasted and analyzed under current background by using of Rescaled Range Analysis(R/S analysis method) method.The results showed annual average CODMn of Xiangshan Harbor has decreasing trend over a long period of time,moreover,annual average DIN and PO4-P have increasing trend in a long-term during recent 22 years,decreasing trend of CODMn was evidently larger than increasing trend of DIN and PO4-P.Under the current background,the decreasing trend of CODMn,may be inverse to become increasing trend,and,increasing trend of DIN and PO4-P still will be to go on with keeping in the future,the ratios of N to P will more enlarge,disproportion status of N and P will be more pricked up.

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