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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 贵州省苄米不同生育阶段干旱灾害风险分析 灌溉排水学报 2015,34 (6) 39-43
Position: Home > Articles > Analysis on Drought Disaster Risk in Different Growth Stages of Maize in Guizhou Province Journal of Irrigation and Drainage 2015,34 (6) 39-43

贵州省苄米不同生育阶段干旱灾害风险分析

作  者：
李佳;李彦彬;徐建新;张泽中
单  位：
华北水利水电大学水利学院
关键词：
信息扩散理论;玉米;干旱灾害;风险分析;贵州省
摘  要：
选取玉米不同生育阶段的降水距平百分数为干旱指标,进行不同生育阶段旱情等级的划分;基于信息扩散理论分析贵州省玉米不同生育阶段干旱灾害风险.结果表明,干旱灾害风险发生的概率以播种出苗期最高,出苗拔节期最低;播种-出苗期、抽穗一灌浆期发生特旱的概率较高,出苗一拔节期发生轻旱的概率较高;拔节-抽穗期、抽穗-灌浆期、灌浆成熟期、全生育期发生中旱的概率较高.贵州省中部播种-出苗期旱灾风险较高,西北部出苗-拔节期、全生育期旱灾风险较高,西南部拔节-抽穗期旱灾风险较高,北部出苗-拔节期旱灾风险较高,东部抽穗灌浆期、灌浆-成熟期、全生育期旱灾风险较高.应用信息扩散理论进行玉米不同生育阶段干旱灾害风险评估是可行的.
译  名：
Analysis on Drought Disaster Risk in Different Growth Stages of Maize in Guizhou Province
关键词：
information diffusion theoryl maize%drought disaster%risk analysis%Guizhou province
摘  要：
The percentage of precipitation anomaly in various growth stages of maize was selected as the drought index to divide drought level. Then, drought disaster risk at different growth stages of maize was deeply analyzed based on the information diffusion theory. The results showed that the probability of drought disaster risk was the highest at sowing-seedling stage and was the lowest at seedling-jointing stage~ The severe drought probability was the highest at sowing-seedling and heading-grouting stage, the mild drought probability was the highest at seedling-jointing stage, and the probability of moderate drought was the highest at jointing-heading stage, heading-grouting stage, grouting-filling stage and the whole growth period. The drought disaster risk in the central province was the highest at sowing-seedling stage, in the northwest was the highest at seedling-jointing stage and the whole growth period, in the southwest was the highest at jointing-heading stage, in the north was the highest at seedling-jointing stage, and in the east was the highest at heading-grouting stage, grouting-filling stage and the whole growth period. The method based on the information diffusion theory is scientific and feasible to assess drought risk.

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