摘 要：
对广元市7县(区)1954~2007年主要农作物单产进行分析,计算水稻、玉米单产风险指标和综合风险指数,并依据气象产量的减产率界定灾年,分析各县区不同灾害年型减产率和综合风险指数的地域分布规律,并以总体变异系数为依据,参考历年平均减产率和欠年减产率,采用逐步聚类法对不同作物进行风险分区,为调整种植结构、趋利避害等提供了参考。
译 名：
Risk Assessment on the Specific Yield of Main Crops of Guangyuan City and Their Regionalization
作 者：
WANG Qin et al(Guangyuan Meteorological Bureau,Sichuan Province,Guangyuan,Sichuan 628017)
关键词：
Specific yield of crops;Disaster;Risk;Regionalization;Guangyuan City
摘 要：
The specific yields of main crops of 7 counties(districts) in Guangyuan City from 1954 to 2007 were analyzed and the risk indexes of specific yields and comprehensive risk indexes of rice and corn were calculated.The disaster year was defined according to the yield-reduced rate of meteorological yield,the regional distribution law of yield-reduced rates and comprehensive risk indexes of different types of disaster years of various counties and districts was analyzed.And then with coefficient of total variation as basis,referring to the average yield-reduced rate over the years and the yield-reduced rate of lean years,the risk regionalization was performed on different crops by gradual cluster analysis and this provided reference for regulating pattern of farming,going after profits and avoiding disadvantages.
