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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 四川省强降水分布及变化特征研究 安徽农业科学 2019 (4) 224-230
Position: Home > Articles > Study on the Distribution and Characteristics of Heavy Precipitation Sichuan Province Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences 2019 (4) 224-230

四川省强降水分布及变化特征研究

作  者：
次旺顿珠;白玛多吉;罗桑丹增
单  位：
西藏自治区气候中心;西藏自治区大气探测技术与装备保障中心;西藏自治区那曲市班戈县气象局
关键词：
降水分布;变化特征;一元线性回归;气候倾向率;M-K突变检验;EEMD经验模态分解;四川省
摘  要：
利用1980—2012年四川省36个站点逐日降水资料,运用数理统计、一元线性回归、M-K突变检验、EEMD经验模态分解等方法,研究了四川省强降水分布以及时间演变规律。结果表明:四川省总体年平均降水量为1 039.6 mm,且年降水量总体呈递减趋势,每10年减少22.9 mm左右;中部地区年平均降水量相对较多,东部地区年平均降水量其次,西部地区年平均降水量相对较少。四川省降水量季节变化春季呈上升趋势,夏季、秋季和冬季呈现下降趋势。四川省大雨日数呈下降趋势,大约每10年大雨日数随时间会减少4.0 d。暴雨日数也呈下降趋势,大约每10年暴雨日数随时间会减少1.5 d。中部地区大雨日数、暴雨日数均较多,东部地区其次,西部地区相对较少。1992年为四川省年降水量开始突变年;降水序列在年际演变过程中,存在2～3年小尺度、5～10年中尺度、20年左右大尺度这3类时间尺度变化规律。根据趋势项得出四川省年降水量呈递减趋势。
译  名：
Study on the Distribution and Characteristics of Heavy Precipitation Sichuan Province
作  者：
CIWANG Dun-zhu;BAIMA Duo-ji;LUOSANG Dan-zeng;Tibet Autonomous Region Climate Center;Meteorological Bureau of Bangor County,Naqu City,Tibet Autonomous Region;Tibet Autonomous Region Atmospheric Detection Technology and Equipment Support Center;
关键词：
Precipitation distribution;;Variation characteristics;;Linear regression;;Climate tendency rate;;M-K mutation test;;EEMD empirical mode decomposition;;Sichuan Province
摘  要：
Using the daily precipitation data of 36 stations in Sichuan Province from 1980 to 2012,the mathematical statistics,linear regression,M-K mutation test,EEMD empirical mode decomposition were used to study the distribution and time evolution of strong precipitation in Sichuan Province.The results showed that the overall average annual precipitation was 1 039.6 mm in Sichuan Province,and the mean annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend,every 10 years reduced about 22.9 mm.The annual precipitation in central area of relatively large,the eastern area rainfall secondly,western region the average annual precipitation was less.Based on the variation of seasonal precipitation of Sichuan Province,the spring was on the rise,summer,autumn and winter showed a downward trend.Heavy rain days showed a decreasing trend,approximately every 10 years the number of heavy rain days time would be reduced by 4 days.Rainstorm day number also declined,approximately every 10 years the number of heavy rain days time would be reduced by 1.5 days.The central area of heavy rain days,rainstorm days were more,the eastern region secondly and western region was less.The results of M-K test show that,Sichuan Province in 1992 for the annual precipitation to the mutation years.Based on the annual precipitation was EEMD empirical mode decomposition obtains,precipitation sequence in the interannual evolution,variation of these 3 time scales are small scale,2-3 years 5-10 years,20 years or so large scale.

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