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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 基于灰色理论的延边地区畜禽养殖环境承载力研究 中国畜牧杂志 2016,52 (20) 24-28
Position: Home > Articles > Research of the Livestock and Poultry Breeding Environment Bearing Capacity in Yanbian Area based on Gray Theory Chinese Journal of Animal Science 2016,52 (20) 24-28

基于灰色理论的延边地区畜禽养殖环境承载力研究

作  者：
王延吉;金爱芬;赵春子;金明姬
单  位：
延边大学农学院延边大学理学院
关键词：
畜禽养殖;环境承载力;系统分析模型;灰色数列预测模型
摘  要：
本文结合2008—2014年延边地区畜禽养殖发展现状,构建了延边地区畜禽养殖环境承载力评价指标体系,并采用系统分析模型对分析年份延边地区畜禽养殖环境承载力综合值进行了量化;同时运用灰色数列预测模型对延边地区2015—2025年畜禽养殖环境承载力进行了预测。结果表明,延边地区畜禽养殖环境承载力适宜值与警戒值分别为0.241和0.234;2008—2014年畜禽养殖环境承载力综合值均大于适宜值,且逐渐偏离适宜值,延边地区畜禽养殖环境承载能力较强。而2015—2025年间畜禽养殖环境承载力综合值也均大于适宜值,发展前景乐观,可进行持续性发展。
译  名：
Research of the Livestock and Poultry Breeding Environment Bearing Capacity in Yanbian Area based on Gray Theory
作  者：
WANG Yan-ji;JIN Ai-fen;ZHAO Chun-zi;JIN Ming-ji;Agricultural College of Yanbian University;Science College of Yanbian University;
关键词：
livestock and poultry breeding;;environment bearing capacity;;system analysis model;;gray sequence forecast model
摘  要：
Through investigating and analyzing the development present situation of livestock and poultry breeding environment in Yanbian area from 2008 to 2014 to set up a index system of livestock and poultry breeding environment bearing capacity.The system analysis model was used to quantify the livestock and poultry breeding environment bearing capacity of Yanbian area.At the same time,the gray sequence forecast model was used to predict the livestock and poultry breeding environment bearing capacity of Yanbian area in next 11 years(from 2015 to 2025).The results showed that the suitable value and warning value of livestock and poultry breeding environment in Yanbian area was 0.241,0.234,separately.The comprehensive values of livestock and poultry breeding environment bearing capacity from 2008 to 2014 were greater than the warning value and deviated from the suitable value,The livestock and poultry breeding environment bearing capacity in Yianbian area is stronger.In the next 11 years(from 2015 to2025),the comprehensive values of livestock and poultry breeding environment bearing capacity were greater than the suitable value which means the development prospect of livestock and poultry breeding would be optimistic and sustainable in the next few years in Yanbian area.

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