单 位：
中国烟草总公司广西壮族自治区公司;中国卷烟销售公司
关键词：
卷烟市场;景气指数;指标体系;动态监测预警
摘 要：
编制卷烟市场景气指数是对卷烟销售市场进行监测预警的重要手段,本文基于景气循环理论,借鉴经济景气监测方法,从理论上建立了包括先行、一致和滞后指数在内的卷烟市场景气指数体系,并以广西为例,运用月度数据编制了2011年1月至2016年3月卷烟市场景气先行指数、一致指数和滞后指数。在此基础上,进一步建立了卷烟市场景气预警信号系统。该系统的建立有利于决策部门从宏观层面把握卷烟市场波动总体状况和未来发展趋势,及时调整相关政策,采取相应调控措施,确保卷烟市场在合理范围内运行。
译 名：
Compilation and practice of cigarette market prosperity index: a case study of cigarette market in Guangxi province
作 者：
LI Xiaomei;LI Jian;ZHANG Hui;Guangxi Autonomous Region Tobacco Corporation;China Cigarette Sales and Marketing Corporation;
关键词：
cigarette market;;prosperity index;;index system;;monitoring and warning system
摘 要：
The construction of cigarette market prosperity index is an important means to monitor cigarette sales market. Monthly indicators related to macroeconomic and cigarette sale market were collected, from which the leading, consistent, and lagging indicators of cigarette market were screened by method of composite index, using relevant data in Guangxi Autonomous Region from January 2011 to March 2016. The monitoring and warning system of cigarette market was thus established, which could help decision-making departments accurately judge overall situation of cigarette market, predict future development tendency, and adjust relevant regulation policies to ensure industry operation.
