作 者：
刘英;周忠文;柳东慧;张峰;王龙峰;王宏智
单 位：
中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所;兰州资源环境职业技术大学;甘肃省合水县气象局;甘肃省庆阳市气象局
关键词：
24节气;物候型节气;水热资源;气候变化;农业响应;庆阳
摘 要：
为了全面掌握庆阳水热资源变化规律,提高气象预报水平和指导农事生产活动能力,利用庆阳市8县区1971-2020年24节气的最高、最低、平均气温及降水量资料,采用线性趋势、多项式函数、相关分析、t检验等方法,研究基于24节气的庆阳市气候变化规律及响应特征.结果表明,24节气中最高、最低、平均气温均呈上升趋势且呈准正态单峰型分布,其中大暑、小暑节气温度最高,温度升温趋势最显著;春、秋季型节气间温度变幅和温度日较差偏大,其中清明和立冬是气温波动最大的两个节气,这与庆阳早、晚霜冻活动期一致;物候型节气惊蛰、清明、小满、芒种气温均呈波动性上升,标志着不同农业生产期的开始,白露过后暑气渐消,霜降节气天气渐凉,标志着进入越冬期,清明-霜降为庆阳的农耕期.24节气中降水量呈单峰型波动分布,一年中立春-大暑降水量逐渐增加,最大值出现在立秋节气;谷雨-寒露节气是降水量最多时段,约占全年总降水量的87%,大致与农耕期同步;处暑-大寒节气降水量逐渐减少,最小值出现在冬至;夏季型节气降水量增加最快,秋季型节气降水量减少最快.总体而言,热量资源增加,降水波动增加,雨热同季有利于农业发展;但降水量季节分布极为不均,作物生长关键期的降水不确定性增加了干旱风险.研究结果对指导庆阳市农业生产有重要的现实意义.
译 名：
Analysis of Changes in Water and Heat Resources and Agricultural Response in Qingyang Based on 24 Solar Terms
关键词：
24 solar terms%phenological solar terms%hydrothermal resources%climate change%agricultural response%Qingyang
摘 要：
In order to comprehensively grasp the changing law of water and heat resources in Qingyang,improve the level of meteorological forecasting and the ability to guide agricultural production activities,we used the maximum,minimum and average temperature and precipitation data of the 24 solar term days in 8 counties and districts of Qingyang City from 1971 to 2020,and adopted linear trend,polynomial function,correlation analysis,t-test and other methods to study the change rule of climate and response characteristics of Qingyang City based on the 24 solar terms.The results showed that the maximum,minimum and mean temperatures of the 24 solar terms showed an increasing trend and a quasi-normal single-peak distribution,in which the temperatures of the Dashu and Xiaoshu were the highest,and the warming trend was the most significant;the temperature variability and the daily difference of the temperature between the spring and autumn solar terms were large,in which Qingming and Lidong were the two terms with the largest fluctuation of temperature,which was consistent with the period of the early and late frost activities in Qingyang City;the temperature of the phenological solar term,Jingzhe,Qingming,Xiaoman and Mangzhong all showed a fluctuating increase,marking the beginning of different agricultural production periods.After Bailu,the summer heat gradually disappeared,and weather gradually cooled down from Shuangjiang,marking the entry into the wintering period.Qingming-Shuangjiang was Qingyang's farming period.The precipitation in the 24 solar terms showed a unimodal fluctuation distribution,and the precipitation in Lichun-Dashu gradually increased in one year,and the maximum value appeared in the Liqiu.Guyu-Hanlu solar term was the most precipitation period,accounting for 87%of the total annual precipitation,which was roughly synchronized with the farming period.The precipitation of Chushu-Dahan solar term gradually decreased,and the minimum value appeared in the Winter Solstice;the fastest increase in precipitation was observed in the summer-type solar term,and the fastest decrease in precipitation was observed in the autumn-type solar term.Overall,the increase of heat resources and the fluctuation of precipitation increase,and the same season of rain and heat are conducive to agricultural development;however,the seasonal distribution of precipitation is extremely uneven,and the uncertainty of precipitation in the critical period of crop growth increases the risk of drought.The results of the study are of great practical significance for further improving the forecasting accuracy and guiding agricultural production.
