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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 基于马尔科夫二次规划模型的黑龙江省林业产业结构的有序度测算与优化 林业科学 2014 (9) 138-144
Position: Home > Articles > Order Degree Calculation and Optimization on Forestry Industrial Structure of Heilongjiang Province Based on Markov Quadratic Programming Model Scientia Silvae Sinicae 2014 (9) 138-144

基于马尔科夫二次规划模型的黑龙江省林业产业结构的有序度测算与优化

作  者：
吕洁华;张洪瑞;张滨
单  位：
东北林业大学经济管理学院
关键词：
林业产业结构;有序度;目标产业结构;马尔科夫二次规划模型;优化策略
摘  要：
通过运用二次规划数学模型求得林业产业结构的马尔科夫转移矩阵,对2012—2020年黑龙江省林业产业目标结构进行预测,选择2012,2015和2020年计算结果为参照标准,测算1998—2011年黑龙江省林业产业结构的发展有序度,定量考察黑龙江省林业产业结构优化调整程度。结果表明:黑龙江省林业产业结构正处于动态的优化中,尤其是2006—2011年,依据选取的3个参照标准,有序度值依次为0.97~0.98,0.92~0.93和0.89~0.90,说明近些年黑龙江省林业产业结构调整程度较好,但仍需进一步深化调整。根据研究结果及黑龙江省林业产业现状,提出优化林业产业结构的思路与策略。
译  名：
Order Degree Calculation and Optimization on Forestry Industrial Structure of Heilongjiang Province Based on Markov Quadratic Programming Model
作  者：
Lü Jiehua;Zhang Hongrui;Zhang Bin;College of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University;
关键词：
forestry industry structure;;order degree;;target industrial structure;;Markov quadratic programming model;;optimization strategies
摘  要：
In this study,a quadratic programming model was used to obtain Markov transition matrix of the forestry industry structure,which was applied to predict the forestry target industrial structure of Heilongjiang province from 2012 to 2020. The calculated results of 2012,2015 and 2020 were chosen as the reference standard,the development order degree of forestry industrial structure of Heilongjiang province from 1998 to 2011 was calculated,and the adjustment degree of forestry industrial structure of Heilongjiang province was quantitatively studied. The results showed that the forestry industry structure of Heilongjiang province was in process of dynamic optimization,especially in 2006- 2011. The order degree values were successively among 0. 97- 0. 98,0. 92- 0. 93 and 0. 89- 0. 90,indicating that the adjustment degree of forestry industrial structure in Heilongjiang province in recent years was well,but the forestry industry still needs to be further adjusted. Based on the results and the actual situation of Heilongjiang forestry industry,the strategies to optimize the forestry industrial structure are put forward.

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