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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 广西农业碳排放影响因素和趋势预测 西南林业大学学报(自然科学) 2020 (2) 5-13
Position: Home > Articles > Influencing Factors and Trend Forecast of Agricultural Carbon Emission in Guangxi Journal of Southwest Forestry University(Natural Sciences) 2020 (2) 5-13

广西农业碳排放影响因素和趋势预测

关键词：
农业;碳排放;强度;驱动因素;LMDI模型;趋势预测
摘  要：
以广西地区农业碳排放量数据为基础,测算广西1999—2017年的农业碳排放量,基于LMDI模型对广西农业碳排放影响因素进行驱动分解,进而运用灰色模型GM (1.1)对广西2018—2025年的农业碳排放进行了预测。测算结果显示,1999—2017年间广西农业碳排放量呈现较为明显的上升-下降、两阶段、三时期变化特征,测算期的年均增长率为1.06%;预测结果表明,2018—2025年广西农业的碳排放量在1 250万t～1 320万t间呈增加趋势,并据此提出可采取的措施,以有效促进农业碳减排和低碳农业发展,同时为"十三五"时期广西的农业碳减排目标实现提供决策参考。
译  名：
Influencing Factors and Trend Forecast of Agricultural Carbon Emission in Guangxi
作  者：
Kuang Aiping;Hu Chao;School of Marxism, Guangxi Normal University;
关键词：
agriculture;;carbon emission;;intensity;;driving factors;;LMDI model;;trend prediction
摘  要：
Based on the data of agricultural carbon emissions in Guangxi, the agricultural carbon emissions of Guangxi in 1999-2017 are calculated. Based on the LMDI model, the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Guangxi are decomposed, and then the agricultural carbon emissions of Guangxi in 2018-2025 are predicted by using the grey model GM(1.1). The calculation results show that the agricultural carbon emissions in Guangxi during 1999-2017 have obvious characteristics of rising and falling, two-stage and three-stage changes, with an average annual growth rate of 1.06%; the prediction results show that the agricultural carbon emissions in Guangxi will increase between 12.5 million T and 13.2 million T in 2018-2025, based on which the measures can be taken to effectively promote the agricultural carbon emission reduction and the development of low-carbon agriculture provides decision-making reference for the realization of the goal of agricultural carbon emission reduction in Guangxi during the 13~(th) Five Year Plan period.

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