作 者：
涂石飞;徐峰;张羽;季倩倩;陈虹颖;李晓惠
单 位：
广东海洋大学南海海洋气象研究院;广东海洋大学广东省近海海洋变化与灾害预警重点实验室;广东省气候中心;广东海洋大学海洋与气象学院
关键词：
湛江地区;降水;年代际特征;影响因素;相关分析
摘 要：
【目的】研究湛江地区降水的年际、年代际特征及其影响因素。【数据】基于1962-2016年湛江地区6个国家气象观测站的逐日降水资料、同期月平均ONI、PDO序列和月平均风场、相对湿度等再分析资料,【方法】结合线性倾向估计、连续小波变换、相关分析等多种统计学方法。【结果与结论】湛江地区降水存在准2 a、5~8 a的年际振荡,降水日数有显著的准40 a年代际振荡;夏、秋季节的降水变化构成了湛江地区全年降水变化的主要部分;除冬季降水量增加外,各季节降水与降水日数基本呈现"偏多-偏少"的年代际特征;进一步对比发现P1(降水偏多)时期涝年较多,旱年较少,P2(降水偏少)时期恰好相反,但严重涝年偏多,降水强度增大,极端性降水事件发生频次增多。通过对湛江地区降水可能产生影响的因素分析发现:P2时期湛江地区降水频次的减少主要是由于西北太平洋副热带高压的增强、西南季风的减弱以及夏、秋季孟加拉湾和中南半岛异常下沉气流影响所致;冬季南海东部低层异常气旋环流是P2时期降水增加的一个主要原因;P2时期ENSO、PDO等大尺度海气系统在调控湛江地区降水变化中所起作用均有增加。
译 名：
Interdecadal Characteristics and Influence Factors of Precipitation in Zhanjiang
作 者：
TU Shi-fei;XU Feng;ZHANG Yu;JI Qian-qian;CHEN Hong-ying;LI Xiao-hui;College of Oceanography and Meteorology,Guang Dong Ocean University;South China Sea Institute of Marine Meteorology,Guang Dong Ocean University;Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Coastal Ocean Variation and Disaster Prediction Technologies,Guang Dong Ocean University;Guangdong Climate Center;
关键词：
Zhanjiang;;precipitation;;interdecadal characteristics;;influence factors;;correlation analysis
摘 要：
【Purpose】The interannual and interdecadal characteristics of Zhanjiang precipitation and the possible influence mechanism of rainfall are investigated. 【Data】Based on the daily precipitation data of six national meteorological stations in Zhanjiang from 1962 to 2016, monthly average ONI and PDO indexes, monthly average reanalysis data, including wind, relative humidity, vertical velocity and SST, were analsis【Methods】Using linear regression analysis, continuous wavelet transform and correlation analysis were performed. 【Results and Conclusions】The results showed that there are quasi-2 a and 5-8 a interannual oscillations in Zhanjiang precipitation, and the rainy days were significant quasi-40 a interdecadal oscillation. The variation of precipitation in the summer and autumn formed the main portion of the change of annual precipitation in Zhanjiang. Except for the increase of winter precipitation, the annual precipitation and rainy days basically showed the interdecadal characteristics of "more-less". Compared with the periods of P1(more rainfall) and P2(less rainfall), there were more flood years and less dry years in P1. P2 was opposite to P1, with increased severe flooding years It is indicated that precipitation intensity increased and extreme precipitation events occurred more frequently in P2. The analysis of the factors that may affect precipitation in Zhanjiang shows that the decrease of precipitation frequency in Zhanjiang during the P2 period is mainly attributed to the enhancement of the subtropical high, the weakening of the southwest monsoon and the abnormal downdraft flow in the Bay of Bengal and Indochinese Peninsula in summer and autumn. The anomalous cyclonic circulation in South China Sea is one of the main reasons for the increase of precipitation during the winter of P2 period. It is also found that the large-scale air-sea systems such as ENSO and PDO in the P2 period play an important role in adjusting the precipitation variation in Zhanjiang.
