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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 长足大竹象幼虫种群动态及其气候预测模型 林业科学 2011,47 (9) 85-90
Position: Home > Articles > Larvae Population Dynamics of Cyrtatrachelus buqueti and the Forecasting Models with Climate Factors Scientia Silvae Sinicae 2011,47 (9) 85-90

长足大竹象幼虫种群动态及其气候预测模型

作  者：
杨瑶君;秦虹;邓光明;汪淑芳;廖莉容;刘超;李仕贵
单  位：
四川省沐川县林业局;四川农业大学;乐山师范学院化学与生命科学学院
关键词：
长足大竹象;幼虫种群动态;预测模型;平均气温;最低气温
摘  要：
2004—2008年于四川沐川定期调查长足大竹象为害的3个慈竹林内所有竹笋上的幼卵和幼虫密度变化,运用主成分、相关和通径分析及决策系数研究影响幼虫种群变化的主要气候因子。结果表明:幼虫种群变化呈单峰型,8月为高峰期,10月上旬以后虫口密度逐渐趋向于0水平。长足大竹象幼虫种群变化最主要的限制因子是旬平均气温,最主要的决策因素是旬最低气温。8种函数拟合表明平均虫口密度与旬平均气温、旬最低气温之间分别用直线函数方程Y=-0.535+0.031X、对数函数方程Y=-1.594+0.600lnX拟合的效果最好,据此建立平均虫口密度气候预测表,提出长足大竹象防治的温度指标为旬平均温度21.5℃或旬最低温度17.7℃。
译  名：
Larvae Population Dynamics of Cyrtatrachelus buqueti and the Forecasting Models with Climate Factors
作  者：
Yang Yaojun1 Qin Hong3 Deng Guangming3 Wang Shufang1 Liao Lirong1 Liu Chao1 Li Shigui2(1.Chemistry and Bioscience College,Leshan Normal University Leshan 614004;2.Sichuan Agricultural University Ya'an 625014;3.Forestry Bureau of Muchuan County Muchuan 614500)
关键词：
Cyrtatrachelus buqueti;larvae population dynamics;forecasting model;mean temperature;minimum temperature
摘  要：
Ground life history of Cyrtatrachelus buqueti,a main bamboo pest,is markedly impacted by temperature.From 2004 to 2008,the eggs and larvae in all bamboo shoots in three plots of a bamboo forest were regularly investigated in Muchuan,Sichuan Province.The principal component analysis,as well as correlation and path analysis and decision coefficient,was conducted to study effects of main climate factors on larvae population dynamics.The results showed that the larvae population fluctuation exhibited a single peak,occurred in August,and the larvae population density gradually tended to zero level after early October.The results suggested that the most important limiting-factor and the most important decision factor of larvae population fluctuation were respectively the mean temperature and the minimum temperature.Two forecasting models for the larvae population fluctuation were established,i.e.,C.buqueti larvae density(Y) and mean temperature(X) follow the equation of Y=-0.535+0.031X,and C.buqueti larvae density(Y) and minimum temperature(X) follow the equation of Y=-1.594+0.600lnX.Based on these results,forecast tables for C.buqueti larvae density were provided,and two temperature guide lines,mean temperature of ten days 21.5 ℃ or minimum temperature of ten days 17.7 ℃,for controlling larvae density of C.buqueti,were suggested too.

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