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Position: Home > Articles > Quantitative Risk Assessment of Foot-and-mouth Disease in a Bull Farm China Animal Health Inspection 2017 (7) 10-12+55

某公牛场感染口蹄疫的定量风险评估

作  者：
李树博;顾贵波;崔基贤
单  位：
辽宁省动物疫病预防控制中心
关键词：
风险分析;口蹄疫;公牛
摘  要：
公牛场是生产并为其他牛场、散户提供精液的单位,在动物垂直传播疫病防控中具有重要意义。本研究从口蹄疫传播的风险因素入手,通过分析公牛场生产活动的模式及特点,建立公牛场发生口蹄疫感染的风险评估情景树模型,并对某公牛场进行了发生牛口蹄疫感染的定量风险分析。分析认为,该场在6个月内有1头以上的牛发生口蹄疫感染的概率为1.13%。通过风险交流,有针对性地提出了降低风险的具体措施:购买可信的高质量饲料;对收粪运输工人和车辆严格消毒,有条件的可采用场内的车转运;加强灭鼠工作;加强生产区的消毒和饲养管理;在隔离场设立保定栏,加强对隔离场的消毒管理,并在从隔离场调入生产场之前,进行1次口蹄疫病原学检测;建立每头牛的"免疫-检测"档案,分析抗体消长规律和免疫不合格的发生规律。
译  名：
Quantitative Risk Assessment of Foot-and-mouth Disease in a Bull Farm
作  者：
Li Shubo;Gu Guibo;Cui Jixian;Liaoning Provincal Animal Disease Prevention and Control Center;
关键词：
risk analysis;;Foot-and-mouth disease;;bull farm
摘  要：
Bull farms,which produce and provide semen for other dairy farms and retail units,hold an important significance in the prevention and control of vertical transmission diseases of animals. Based on the risk factors of Footand-mouth disease transmission,the risk assessment scenario tree model of Foot-and-mouth disease in bull farms was set up by analyzing the patterns and characteristics of the production activities in bull farms,and quantitative risk analysis of Foot-and-mouth disease infection in a bull farm was carried out. The results showed that the probability of foot-and-mouth disease infection for more than one cattle in a 6-month period was 1.13%. According to the risk communication,some targeted measures were put forward to reduce the spreading risk,including buying authentic and high-quality feed,taking strict disinfection measures to the transportation workers and vehicles collecting dung,using cars of the farm to transfer dung if possible,strengthening rat exterminating and feeding management in production areas of the farm,setting up the animal fixation column in the separation yard,strengthening the disinfection management of the isolation yard,investigating the etiology of Foot-and-mouth disease before moving the cattle into the production yard from the isolation yard,establishing immune and detection profiles for each cow,and analyzing the rule of antibody growth and decline and the occurrence of bovine immune failure.

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