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Position: Home > Articles > The Distributions of Yearly Minimum Temperature and Parameter Estimation in Fujian Province Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology 2011 (1) 24-27

福建省年极端低温的分布及其参数估计

作  者:
林晶;陈惠;陈家金;张春桂;杨凯;李丽纯
单  位:
福建省气象科学研究所
关键词:
极端低温;概率分布;参数估计
摘  要:
利用福建省67个气象站50a(1961-2010年)最低气温资料,分析了福建省极端低温的时空分布规律,并应用耿贝尔分布函数对各站的年极端气温进行了概率计算,计算过程中耿贝尔分布函数分别采用了2种参数估计方法:矩法和耿贝尔法,结合2种表征参数估计优良性的指标,对不同的参数估计方法进行了比较。结果表明:大多数情况下采用矩法时拟合效果较好;在推算不同重现期的年极端最低气温时,用耿贝尔法较好。
译  名:
The Distributions of Yearly Minimum Temperature and Parameter Estimation in Fujian Province
作  者:
LIN Jing,CHEN Hui,CHEN Jia-jin,ZHANG Chun-gui,YANG Kai,LI Li-chun (Meteorological Institute of Fujian,Fuzhou 350001,China)
关键词:
The minimum temperature;Probability distribution;Parameter estimation
摘  要:
This article is based on the series of annual minimum temperature at 67 national weather stations in Fujian province from 1951 to 2010;analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution of the minimum temperature,and utilized Gumbel distribution function to make simulations for annual minimum temperature in Fujian and applied two methods to estimation of parameters,i.e.,squares method and Gumbel's method of minimum likelihood.The fitting results showed that squares method is better then the Gumbel's method,and the estimation of annual minimum temperature for different reappearance periods with the Gumbel's method is better.

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