作 者：
柯映明;沈占锋;白洁;李均力;常存;许泽宇
关键词：
水资源约束;耕地适宜规模;水量平衡;LUCC;生态耗水;渭干河流域
摘 要：
利用遥感、水文、气象、统计年鉴等数据,基于水量平衡原理建立以生态耗水为主要水资源约束条件的耕地适宜规模模型,以渭干河流域为研究对象,估算1990—2017年4期耕地适宜面积并评价其开发潜力。结果表明:①1990—2017年渭干河流域耕地面积持续增加,其转化来源以灌木林、草地为主。②流域水源主要来自地表径流与可利用降水,流域耗水以生态耗水为主。③来水量、作物种植结构与节水灌溉是影响适宜耕地面积估算的主要因素。④1990年耕地达到相对饱和状态; 2000年耕地水平不稳定,其扩张影响生态环境的平衡;随着作物种植结构调整与节水灌溉普及,2010、2017年实际耕地面积远小于其当年来水量下适宜耕地面积,未来耕地具有较大开发潜力。
译 名：
Analysis of suitable scale for cultivated land in the Ugan River Basin accounting for water resource constraints
作 者：
KE Ying-ming;SHEN Zhan-feng;BAI Jie;LI Jun-li;CHANG Cun;XU Ze-yu;Aerospace Information Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xingjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,CAS;Key Laboratory of GIS & RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region;
关键词：
water resources constraints;;suitable scale of cultivated land;;water balance;;LUCC;;ecological water consumption;;basin of the Ugan River
摘 要：
Based on multi-source data including remote sensing,hydrometeorology,statistical yearbooks,and agricultural irrigation,a suitable scale model for cultivated land under water resources constraints is constructed based on the principle of water balance. Considering the case of the Ugan River Basin,the suitable scale of cultivated land in 1990,2000,2010 and 2017 was estimated,and the potential of cultivated land development with ecological water consumption as the main water resource constraint was evaluated. The results show that:(1) From 1990 to 2017,cultivated land area in the Ugan River Basin continually increased,primarily from the conversion of shrubs and grasslands,followed by the conversion of land dominated by forests and desert. Since 2010,one of the primary reasons for the expansion of cultivated land is the gradual transformation of wasteland into cultivated land.(2) The water in the Ugan River Basin mainly originates from surface runoff and precipitation. Surface runoff accounts for more than 60% of the incoming water,whereas precipitation accounts for approximately 20%-30%. With the exception of water consumption by agriculture,the remainder of the water consumption in the basin is based on ecological water consumption,of which natural vegetation accounts for more than 55%,surface water evaporation for approximately 5%,and water consumption by the ecological balance of the river for around 30%. Water consumption by the population of the region,including for animal husbandry and industrial usage,accounts for a very small portion.(3)In the suitable scale estimation model for cultivated land under constrained water resources,changes of incoming water quantity,the difference of crop planting structure,and the use of water-saving irrigation facilities are the principal factors affecting the estimation of cultivated land area.(4) In 1990,cultivated land area was similar to its suitable area and reached a relatively saturated state. In 2000,cultivated land had significantly exceeded the limit of suitable cultivated land area. Such unstable levels of cultivated land,together with its expansion,affected the ecological environment balance; with the adjustment of agricultural planting structure and increasing usage of water-saving irrigation,the cultivated land area in 2010 and 2017 has become much smaller than the suitable cultivated land area considering the available water supply. Cultivated land in the Ugan River Basin has substantial potential for development.
