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Position: Home > Articles > Forecasting Models for Market Needs of Eggs in Lanzhou Journal of Gansu Agricultural University 1991 (2) 152-159

兰州市鲜蛋需求预测模型的研究

作  者:
崔岘
关键词:
鲜蛋;预测;模型
摘  要:
以兰州市1952年至1989年的有关统计资料,应用最小二乘法,建立了兰州市鲜蛋需求的多元线性回归预测模型与Box—Jenkins时间序列自回归预测模型AR(P)。经统计检验,两类预测模型均通过,同时指出了两类预测模型应用的条件与后果。本研究结果对有关部门制定经济政策、调整生产结构与加强科学化管理,均具有一定的实际指导意义。
译  名:
Forecasting Models for Market Needs of Eggs in Lanzhou
作  者:
Cui xian (Department of Animal Sciences, Gansu Agricultural University)
关键词:
egg;;market needs;;forecasting model
摘  要:
Based on statistical data for 38 years, using the least square method, two forecasting models for market needs of eggs were established,ie a multiple linear regression model and a Box Jenkins time series autoregressiveAR.(P) model: Y=-2126. 057+14.2205X_2-124.0877X_3-9.1947X_4 +165.2693X_6 Y_t=1.1839229Y_(t-1)-0.1839229Y_(t-2)+68.24502 As a result of statistical hypothesis test, two established models were accepted.The conditions and consequences of applying the two forecasting models were discussed.

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