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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 近54年民勤绿洲气候变化趋势与周期特征 干旱区研究 2009,26 (4) 471-476
Position: Home > Articles > Study on the Trend and Period Characteristics of Climate Change in the Minqin Oasis since Recent 54 Years Arid Zone Research 2009,26 (4) 471-476

近54年民勤绿洲气候变化趋势与周期特征

作  者：
刘普幸
单  位：
西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院
关键词：
民勤;绿洲;气温;降水;Morlet小波;周期;气候变化
摘  要：
通过对民勤气象站1953-2006年气温和降水量的观测资料分析表明,近54年来,民勤绿洲气温总体呈显著增温趋势,以冬季升温最明显,贡献率最大为特征。年平均降水量在波动中微有增加,以春季增湿最多,夏季略有减少,气候变化具有明显的区域特征。Morlet小波及其功率谱分析表明,气候变化存在多时间尺度、多层次和多分辨的特性结构。其中,年平均气温均存在21年和7.14年周期,年平均降水量存在21,8.62,6.62年和4.03年周期,且中长周期相同,短周期不同。周期特征表明,研究区气候变化21年周期主要受太阳黑子活动磁(海尔)周期的影响,气候变化短周期可能受大气环流和El Ni(?)o等的影响。
译  名：
Study on the Trend and Period Characteristics of Climate Change in the Minqin Oasis since Recent 54 Years
作  者：
LIU Pu-xing (College of Geography and Environment Sciences,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
关键词：
Minqin Oasis;;temperature;;precipitation;;Morlet wavelet;;period;;climate change
摘  要：
Based on the data of temperature and precipitation observed by Minqin Meteorological Station during the period from 1953 to 2006,the analytic results reveal that the annual and seasonal temperature is in an increase trend since recent 54 years,especially the trends of the increase of seasonal temperature and minimum temperature in winter are the most remarkable,and their contribution rates to the temperature increase in the oasis are the highest. The annual precipitation is slightly increased;the trend of precipitation increase is the most obvious in spring, but there is a slight decrease in summer.There are the distinct regional characteristics in climate change.The Morlet wavelet and its power spectrum are used to analyze the periods of annual temperature and precipitation.The results show that there are the multiple timescales,multiple levels and multiple resolutions in the time series of climate change,also the temperature fluctuation periods of 21 years and 7.14 years,and precipitation fluctuation periods of 21 years,8.62 years,6.62 years and 4.03 years,respectively.Moreover,the long-and moderate-term fluctuations are similar,but the short-term ones are different.The characteristics of periods show that the 21-year fluctuations of temperature and precipitation are affected by the 22-year Haier Period of the sunspot activity,and the short-term ones are possibly affected by the atmospheric circumfluence,E1 Nio events,etc.

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