Zhenan Jin;Xiaoqing Xian;Haoxiang Zhao;Ming Li;Jianyang Guo;Nianwan Yang;Fanghao Wan;Stefan Toepfer;Wanxue Li

spread;europe;establishment;global;risk of;north americ

Abstract The establishment and spread of alien species in new areas pose a potential threat to global food security. Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte is an invasive maize pest originally from Mexico, causing substantial economic damage to maize production across extensive areas of the United States and Europe. However, it has not yet invaded Asia or other regions. We used the Ensemble Model and Cellular Automaton to analyze the establishment and spread risk of this pest. The pest has not explored novel climates during past invasions, and the climatic ecological niche it occupied in Europe constitutes only a fraction of that in North America, indicating that the species still possesses the potential to spread further in Europe in the future. Currently, approximately 34% of global maize‐growing areas are at risk, with 25.5% facing a high establishment risk. By 2060, a significant northward spread is projected to occur in North America and Europe, while only a sporadic spread is expected in South America, Asia, Africa, or Oceania. Therefore, the adaptation of transnational management strategies may be necessary to prevent and control the risk of introduction and spread of this important maize pest into new areas of global maize production.