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Position: Home > Articles > Forecasting Models of Regional Water Consumption and Their Application Based on ARIMA and GM(1,1):A Case Study of Guangzhou City Water Saving Irrigation 2018 (2) 61-65+70

基于ARIMA与GM(1,1)的区域用水总量预测模型及应用——以广州市为例

作  者：
田涛;薛惠锋;张峰
单  位：
中国航天系统科学与工程研究院
关键词：
ARIMA模型;GM(1,1)模型;用水总量;预测
摘  要：
区域用水总量控制是落实最严格水资源管理制度的重要内容,提高用水总量预测水平是其关键支撑环节。分别利用ARIMA与GM(1,1)构建区域用水总量预测模型,并基于广州市时序用水特点,对其2002-2016年的用水总量进行模拟预测,在验证模型有效性基础上选用ARIMA(1,1,1)模型预测其2017-2020年用水总量。研究结果表明,ARIMA(1,1,1)对其用水总量模拟预测的相对误差呈现逐步收敛趋势,而GM(1,1)模型则具有先收敛后发散的特点,而结合平均与绝对相对误差验证ARIMA(1,1,1)适用于用水总量预测精度要求;通过预测发现广州市到2020年用水总量将面临超过其用水总量控制红线的危机,而从其2011-2015年用水结构中发现工业和农业用水仍是制约用水总量控制的关键点。因此,在后期水资源规划与调控中,广州市需要进一步加强工业用水效率和农业灌溉技术的提高。
译  名：
Forecasting Models of Regional Water Consumption and Their Application Based on ARIMA and GM(1,1):A Case Study of Guangzhou City
作  者：
TIAN Tao;XUE Hui-feng;ZHANG Feng;China Aerospace Academy of Systems Science and Engineering;
关键词：
ARIMA model;;GM(1,1) model;;total water consumption;;forecast
摘  要：
The total water use control is an important part of implementing the most stringent water resources management system. Increasing the level of the total water use forecasting is the key support link. Based on the characteristics of seasonal that shown in water consumption data in Guangzhou City from 2002 to 2016,ARIMA and GM( 1,1) model were chosen to forecast the total water consumption. The results showed that the relative error from ARIMA( 1,1,1) model was gradually convergent; while the GM( 1,1) model had the characteristics of divergence after convergence. Therefore,combined with the average and absolute relative error verification,it was concluded that ARIMA( 1,1,1) was suitable for the prediction accuracy of total water consumption. Through the forecast it is found that the total water consumption in Guangzhou in 2020 will face the risk of beyond the red line of total amount water control. The fact that industrial and agricultural water use was still the key constraints to total amount of water control was founded from the structure of water use data of Guangzhou in 2011-2015.Therefore,Guangzhou needs to further strengthen increasing the industrial water use efficiency and the technique level of agricultural irrigation in the future planning and control of water resources.

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