关键词：
早稻生长季;气候资源;特征及预测分析;长沙
摘 要：
利用1961~2015年早稻生长季内平均气温、降水量、日照等资料,采用M-K非参数检验、R/S方法及小波变换等方法分析了长沙地区早稻生长季农业气候资源的变化情况。结果表明:长沙地区,1961~2015年期间,热量资源上升趋势显著,在2001年发生突变,稳定通过10℃初日明显提前,突变年份出现在2005年;降水量的波动变化存在28和5 a时间尺度的主周期,目前处于雨水偏多期,未来9 a内呈逐渐转少趋势;日照时数存在15、22 a时间尺度的周期波动变化。根据上述结果建议:早稻播种期可提前5~7 d;可将早稻早熟品种换种生育期相对较长、产量相对较高的中迟熟品种,以提高早稻产量。
译 名：
Characteristic of Climate Change and Forecast Analysis during Early Rice Growth Season in Changsha
作 者：
ZHANG Zhu-qing;CHEN Zhao-hui;QIU Qing-dong;DENG Da-hai;Changsha City Bureau of Meteorology;
关键词：
early rice growth season;;climate resources;;characteristic analysis and prediction;;Changsha
摘 要：
Collecting 1961-2015 rice growing season average temperature, precipitation, sunshine and other information, using the M-K nonparametric test, R/S method and wavelet transform, climate change during the growth season of early rice were analyzed. The results showed that: firstly, the heat resources rise significantly, stable through abrupt change occurred in 2001.10℃ first day was earlier, the mutation year appeared in 2005. Secondly, fluctuations in precipitation are 28 and 5 years main cycle time scale, is currently in the wetter period, the next 9 years is gradually less trend; thirdly, sunshine has 15 years, 22 years scale period fluctuation. The suggestions were put forward such as: early sowing date can be 5-7 days in advance; and the rice early maturing varieties in growth period is relatively long, relatively high yield of late maturing varieties, in order to improve the yield of rice.
