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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 基于虫源基数的稻飞虱发生等级气象预测模型 安徽农业科学 2009,37 (28) 3658-3659+3744
Position: Home > Articles > Plague Grade Meteorological Predication Models of Riceplanthopper Based on Insect Source Cardinal Number Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences 2009,37 (28) 3658-3659+3744

基于虫源基数的稻飞虱发生等级气象预测模型

作  者：
江胜国;程林;张友明;方向群;姚筠
单  位：
安徽省桐城市植保站;安徽省气象科学研究所;安徽省桐城市气象局
关键词：
稻飞虱;虫源基数;发生等级;预测模型
摘  要：
[目的]开展稻飞虱发生的气象条件预警预测,为防虫治虫提供依据。[方法]利用桐城市2005～2007年逐候田间系统调查的稻飞虱百丛虫量数据,分析影响桐城市稻飞虱发生程度的主要气象因子,应用多元线性回归技术建立稻飞虱发生适宜气象条件等级预测的模型。[结果]分析发现,旬平均气温、侯平均气温与系统调查的桐城市稻飞虱百丛虫量均呈显著负相关,显示高温对稻飞虱发生具有抑制作用,最适宜的候平均气温为20.5℃。降水量、降水日数和相对湿度等因子是通过某种综合作用机制来影响稻飞虱发生的。据此建立的桐城稻飞虱发生的气象条件等级预洲模型为Df=INT(0.982 6-0.097 8X_1+0.065 3X_2+0.629 1X_3)。[结论]此稻飞虱发生适宜气象条件等级模型适用性强,经历史拟合和2008年试报应用,拟合率较高,试报效果较好,可靠性强,可投入业务应用。
译  名：
Plague Grade Meteorological Predication Models of Riceplanthopper Based on Insect Source Cardinal Number
作  者：
JIANG Sheng-guo et al(Anhui Provincial Tongcheng Meteorological Bureau,Tongcheng,Anhui 231400)
关键词：
Riceplanthopper;;Insect source base number;;Plague Grade;;Forecast model
摘  要：
[Objective]The meteorological condition of early warning forecast was developed,which provided a basis for pest control pest. [Method]Field systematic investigation of riceplanthopper numbers in hundred clump in Tongcity of 2005 -2007 was used,the effects of main meteorological factor on occurred degree of were analyzed,suitable meteorological condition and so on level forecast model were established based on the application of Multiple linear regression techniques.[Result]The result showed that a ten-day period average temperature,the period of five days average temperature had the remarkable negative correlation with system investigation of Tongcheng riceplanthopper hundred clump of insect quantity,and demonstrated that the high temperature had inhibitory action on riceplanthopper occurrence,the suitable period of five days average temperature was 20.5℃.Precipitation,precipitation factors and relative humidity and so no factors effected the riceplanthopper occurrence through some kind of combined action mechanism.According to the above,the meteorological condition rank forecast model of Tongcheng riceplanthopper occurrence was Df= INT(0.982 6 -0.097 8X_1 +0.065 3X_2 +0.629 1X_3).[Conclusion]This riceplanthopper meteorological condition rank model had a good suitable ability,through the history fitting and 2008 tested report,the fitting rate is higher,reported test results are good,and reliability,and are available for business application.

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