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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 养殖规模化对平缓生猪价格周期效应的中美比较与现实启示 农业现代化研究 2015 (5) 826-833
Position: Home > Articles > Comparison and implications of the impacts from scale production of hogs on stabilizing hog prices in the US and China Research of Agricultural Modernization 2015 (5) 826-833

养殖规模化对平缓生猪价格周期效应的中美比较与现实启示

作  者：
张爱军
单  位：
山东政法学院商学院
关键词：
养殖规模化;生猪价格周期;蛛网模型;规模效应;生猪期货
摘  要：
我国生猪养殖规模普遍偏小,行业集中度低,生猪价格呈现明显的周期性波动。影响生猪价格周期的因素很多,养殖规模化是因素之一。本文从养殖规模化的角度,通过分析我国生猪价格周期情况以及美国三十多年生猪养殖规模化进程表明,养殖规模化程度与生猪价格周期逐渐拉长、价格最大波幅收窄趋势一致,在一定程度起到了稳定器的作用。从规模化程度、驱动因素、规模效应及政策效应四个方面比较分析了中美养殖规模化对生猪价格周期影响的差异性,认为我国以散养户和小户养殖场为主的养殖结构、我国养殖行业自上而下的驱动因素、养殖技术水平相对较低以及补贴政策方式的不同是导致中美差异性的原因。同时,结合我国实际情况,提出了完善养殖规模化整体规划、行业转型升级、推出生猪期货、加大金融支持力度、鼓励生猪产业链整合等政策建议来发展我国规模化养殖,达到平缓生猪价格周期的目的。
译  名：
Comparison and implications of the impacts from scale production of hogs on stabilizing hog prices in the US and China
作  者：
ZHANG Ai-jun;School of Business, Shandong University of Political Science and Law;
关键词：
scale production;;hog price cycles;;cobweb theorem;;scale effect;;hog futures
摘  要：
Hog production scale is small with low degree of concentration and significant cyclical price fluctuations in China. Scale production is one of the factors affecting the hog price among the many of other factors. From the perspective of large-scale farming, this paper analyzed the Chinese hog price cycle and the scale production process in the US over the last thirty years. Results show that the degree of scale production, the prolonged hog price cycles and narrow price volatility play a role of stabilizer to some extent. By comparing the difference between China and the US in the influence on the hog price cycle by the scale production from four aspects, including the scale degree, the driving factors, the scale effect, and the policy effect, this paper found that the causes for the difference between the two countries are: the farming structure of backyard production and small family farm production in China, top-down driving factors of China's hog industry, the relatively low level of technology and farming subsidy differences. In order to develop our large scale production and achieve the target of easing the hog price fluctuation cycle, this paper suggests: 1) To improve the strategic planning for large scale production; 2) To upgrade the structure of the industry; 3) To encourage farmers to use hog futures and options; And 4) to increase financial support and to encourage the integration of the hog industry chain.

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