关键词：
未确知数学;沉积物;重金属污染;可信度;模式
摘 要：
基于水系沉积物系统的未确知性,将未确知数学理论引入沉积物重金属污染评价,构建了地累积指数未确知数学模型和污染等级识别的未确知数学模式。根据地累积指数未确知模型,计算得到置信区间形式的地累积指数以及置信区间对应的可信度。在此基础上,由污染等级未确知识别模型判定研究对象隶属于各级污染水平的可能性,进而识别污染等级。将上述未确知数学模型应用于巢湖某入湖河口沉积物重金属污染评价中,得到Hg、Cd、Pb和Cu等4种重金属污染程度由重到轻的排序为Hg>Cd>Pb>Cu,其中Hg污染等级为3级,Cd为2级,Pb为1级,Cu为1级,相应的可能性分别为71.1%、89.8%、74.3%和74.3%。4种重金属的综合污染等级为5级,属于强-极强污染状态,可能性为55.5%。
译 名：
Assessment Model for Heavy Metal Pollution in Stream Sediments Based on Unascertained Mathematics Theory
作 者：
LI Ru-zhong, HONG Tian-qiu, XIONG Hong-bin, QIAN Jia-zhong (School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China)
关键词：
unascertained mathematics; sediments; heavy metal pollution; faith degree; model
摘 要：
Since the unascertained characteristic of stream sediments system, unascertained mathematics theories are applied to the assessment of heavy metal pollution in stream sediments. Two new models are established, namely unascertained geo-accumulation index model and unascertained identification model for pollution levels. According to the former model, the confidence intervals and confidence degrees of geo-accumulation index can be obtained. On the basis, the reliability degrees of heavy metal subordinating to each pollution level can be determined through the later model. As a case, the two unascertained models are utilized to assess the heavy metal pollution in sediments at a certain river mouth, pouring into Chaohu lake, and the pollution degree of the heavy metals follows the order: Hg>Cd>Pb>Cu. The pollution levels of these 4 heavy metals can also be identified. Hg and Cd belong to Class 3 and Class 2, respectively, while, Pb and Cu belong to Class 1. The reliability degrees of each heavy metal subordinating to above pollution levels are 71.1%, 89.8%, 74.3% and 74.3%, respectively. The comprehensive geo-accumulation index of Hg, Cd, Pb and Cu in the river mouth is subordinated to Class 5 with reliability degree 55.5%.
