中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 中国农学会
Agricultural Information Institute of CAAS China Association of Agricultural Science Societies
En
Ch
中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 中国农学会 主办

AI检索

订阅

返回顶部
当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 基于人粮关系的咸宁市土地承载力研究 江西农业学报 2014 (9) 111-115
Position: Home > Articles > Study on Carrying Capacity of Land Resources in Xianning City Based on Population- Grain Relationship Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi 2014 (9) 111-115

基于人粮关系的咸宁市土地承载力研究

作  者：
郝汉舟;汪华
单  位：
华中师范大学;湖北科技学院
关键词：
土地承载力;土地生产潜力;咸宁市
摘  要：
以湖北省咸宁市为例,采用灰色模型GM(1,1)及逻辑斯蒂模型分别预测咸宁市未来人口、耕地及粮食单产的变化。采用环境因子逐段订正模型计算咸宁市土地耕地生产潜力,研究结果表明:咸宁市2011年耕地单产平均水平为6575.4 kg/hm2,理论计算的耕地生产潜力为23760.2 kg/hm2,实际单产为潜在耕地生产潜力的27.7%。2011年咸宁市耕地粮食承载力压力很大,除嘉鱼县外,人口承载指数LCCI均大于1。2015年和2025年咸宁市粮食单产预测为8473.1 kg/hm2和9441.7 kg/hm2。2015年和2025年人口预测为301.9万和324.3万。对于小康型人口承载力来讲,人口承载指数LCCI,在2015年为0.79,在2025年为0.59,人口饱和度呈现下降的趋势。
译  名：
Study on Carrying Capacity of Land Resources in Xianning City Based on Population- Grain Relationship
作  者：
HAO Han-zhou;WANG Hua;College of Resources,Environment and Engineering,Hubei University of Science and Technology;Research Center of Land and Water Resources in Middle Reaches of Changjiang River,Hubei University of Science and Technology;College of Economics and Business Management,Central China Normal University;
关键词：
Carrying capacity of land resource;;Production potential of arable land;;Xianning city
摘  要：
In this study,the grey model GM( 1,1) and the Logistic model were used to predict the changes in the future population,farmland and grain yield per unit area of Xianning city,Hubei province. The piecewise- revised model by using environmental factors was adopted to calculate the production potential of arable land in Xianning city. The results showed that:( 1) the average grain yield per unit area of arable land in Xianning city in 2011 was 6575. 4 kg /hm2,the theoretical production potential of arable land was 23760. 2 kg /hm2,and the former accounted for 27. 7% of the latter;( 2) in 2011,the carrying capacity of arable land for food in Xianning city was great,and the population carrying index LCCI of every county( except for Jiayu county) was greater than 1;( 3) it was predicted that the grain yield per unit area of Xianning city in 2015 and 2025 was 8473. 1 kg /hm2 and 9441.7 kg /hm2respectively; the predicted population of this city in 2015 and 2025 was 3. 019 million and 3. 243 million respectively;( 4) as for the well-off-type population carrying capacity,LCCI in Xianning city was 0. 79 in 2015 and 0. 59 in 2025,and the population saturability revealed a downward trend.

相似文章

导出引用
计量
文章访问数: 10
HTML全文浏览量: 0
PDF下载量: 0

所属期刊

推荐期刊

友情链接Friendly link
农业信息研究所Agricultural information institute 农业智能知识服务平台Agricultural intelligent knowledge service platform 农业学术服务平台Agricultural Knowledge Service System 中国知网CNKI 维普网VIP 万方WANFANG DATA
联系我们Contact us

电话Tell：010-82109652-808

邮箱E-mail：agrijournal@caas.cn

服务Service
关于我们About us 意见建议Opinions and suggest
版权说明Copyright
单位：中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 中国农学会 © 2017中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 ICP备案号：京ICP备09089781号-46