关键词：
参考作物蒸散发;气候变化;Penman-Monteith公式;博斯腾湖流域
摘 要：
【目的】制定合理的农业灌溉制度规划以及合理利用干旱区水资源。【方法】基于博斯腾湖流域1961—2013年4个气象站点的逐日气象数据,采用FAO-56 Penman-Monteith公式估算博斯腾湖流域参考作物蒸散发(ET0),应用气候倾向率和Mann-Kendall秩次相关法开展了研究区1961—2013年的参考作物蒸散发及其气象因子进行了趋势分析和显著性检验的研究,应用SPSS分析软件开展了ET0与气象因子的相关性分析研究,定性分析出各个气象因素对ET0的贡献。【结果】(1)博斯腾湖流域山区年均ET0变化倾向率为-0.379 3,呈现轻微减少趋势;平原区年均ET0变化倾向率为-6.594 5,呈现极显著减少趋势。山区春夏季节呈减少趋势,秋冬则呈不明显上升趋势;平原区各季节均呈显著减少趋势,夏季最明显。(2)研究区风速和最高气温是影响ET0变化的最主要气象参数,且在冬季风速为最敏感参数。(3)焉耆站与库尔勒站风速对年以及四季ET0变化均为负贡献,年贡献分别为-21.36%、-26.97%,是导致ET0下降的主导因子;巴音布鲁克站与巴仑台站最高于最低气温分别对年ET0变化为最大正贡献,分别为15.07%与23.72%。【结论】博斯腾湖流域ET0的下降变化将会减少农业灌溉需水量,且有助于改善脆弱的生态环境,缓解流域干旱气候,敏感性以及贡献率分析有助于人们认识气候变化下流域的水循环特征。
译 名：
Influence of Climate Change on Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in Bosten Lake Basin,Xinjiang
作 者：
YANG Li;LIN Pengfei;LIU Miaomiao;WANG Shuixian;Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University;
关键词：
bosten lake basin;;climate change;;reference crop evapotranspiration;;Penman Monteith formula
摘 要：
【Objective】Make reasonable agriculture irrigation plan and make reasonable use of water resources in arid areas.【Method】Based on characters in four weather stations from 1961 to 2013 of daily meteorological data,the FAO-56 Penman Monteith-formula estimating characters in nearly 50 years of reference crop evaporation(ET0), application of climate tendency rate and Mann Kendall rank correlation method were carried out in the study area in 1961—2013 to analysis reference crop evaporation and meteorological factor in the trend analysis and the test of significance of the research. The correlation analysis between ET0 and meteorological factors was carried out by using SPSS analysis software, and the contribution of each meteorological factor to ET0 was qualitatively analyzed.【Result】The average annual ET0 change tendency rate in the mountainous areas of Bosten Lake basin was-0.379 3, showing a slight decrease trend; The average annual ET0 change trend rate of the plain area was-6.594 5, showing a very significant decrease trend. The spring and summer seasons in mountainous areas showed a decreasing trend, while the autumn and winter showed no obvious rising trend. There was a significant decrease in each season in plain area, especially in summer. Wind speed and maximum temperature in the study area were the most important meteorological parameters influencing ET0 changes, and wind speed was the most sensitive parameter in winter. Wind speed of Yanqi station and korla station both contribute negatively to the annual and seasonal changes of ET0, with annual contributions of-21.36% and-26.97% respectively, which were the leading factors leading to the decrease of ET0. The highest and lowest temperatures at Bayinbuluke station and Baluntai station respectively contributed the most to the annual ET0 change, which was 15.07% and 23.72% respectively.【Conclusion】The characters of watershed ET0 decreased change will reduce the agriculture irrigation water requirement, and help to improve the fragile ecological environment, alleviate river basin arid climate, sensitivity analysis, as well as the contribution helps people to know climate change under the basin water cycle characteristics.
