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Position: Home > Articles > Prediction and Suitability Evaluation of Potential Distribution Area of Chinese Silver Fir Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin 2019 (18) 53-57

我国银杉潜在分布区预测及适宜性评价

作  者：
刘倩;齐增湘;周永;刘惠
单  位：
南华大学设计与艺术学院
关键词：
Maxent模型;分布预测;环境变量因子;适宜性评价;银杉
摘  要：
银杉是我国珍稀的孑遗植物,被誉为"植物界的熊猫"。该研究基于国家植物标本数据库和查阅历年文献所得到60个准确的分布点数据,应用Maxent软件构建了我国银杉林潜在分布模型,并分析了影响银杉分布的关键环境因子。结果表明:(1)银杉的潜在适生区主要集中在重庆南部地区、湖南的南部和西部、广西北部地区、贵州东部和北部地区以及四川省南部地区,银杉在以上分布区的总面积为18.3万km2,占全国面积的1.9%。银杉的高度适宜区面积为3853.6km2,占全国面积的0.04%。(2)影响我国银杉潜在分布的5个主导因子依次为:5月太阳辐射(65.8%),植被覆盖率(13.7%),10月最高温(5.6%),5月平均降雨量(3.3%),淤泥含量(2.3%),总贡献率为90.7%。(3)最大熵的模型AUC值为0.983,说明其可信度极高。
译  名：
Prediction and Suitability Evaluation of Potential Distribution Area of Chinese Silver Fir
作  者：
Liu Qian;School of Design and Art,Nanhua University;
关键词：
Maxent model;;Distribution prediction;;Environmental variable factor;;Suitability analysis;;Cathaya argyrophylla chun et kuang
摘  要：
Silver fir is a unique relict plant in China and is known as the"panda in the plant world". Based on the national plant specimen database and the 60 accurate distribution point data obtained from the previous years,the study used Maxent software to construct the potential distribution model of Chinese silver fir forest,and analyzed the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of silver fir. The results showed that:(1)The potential habitats of the silver fir are mainly concentrated in the southern part of Chongqing,the south and west of Hunan,the northwestern part of Guangxi,the eastern part of Guizhou and the northern part of Sichuan Province. The total area of silver fir in the distribution area is 183000 km2,the height of silver fir. The suitable area is 3853.6 km2.(2)The five dominant factors affecting the potential distribution of Chinese silver fir are:solar radiation in May(65.8%),vegetation coverage(13.7%),and highest temperature in October(5.6%). The average rainfall in May(3.3%),the sludge content(2.3%),the total contribution rate was 90.7%,and(3)the maximum entropy model AUC value was 0.983,indicating that its credibility is extremely high,from an ecological perspective. The potential distribution of Chinese fir cedar is suitable and evaluated,which provides theoretical support for the protection of Chinese Silver cedar population.

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