Position: Home > Articles > Decoupling Analysis between Economic Growth and Carbon Emission under China Carbon Reduction Action:Based on the Predicted Values by DDEPM Model
Hubei Agricultural Sciences
2015,54
(18)
4635-4639
碳减排行动下的中国经济增长与碳排放脱钩分析——基于DDEPM模型预测值
作 者：
张苗;赵振国;陈银蓉
单 位：
武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;华中农业大学公共管理学院
关键词：
碳减排目标;DDEPM模型;协整检验;脱钩分析
摘 要：
基于DDEPM模型对1984-2020年的中国碳排量和GDP进行预测,对预测值进行Johansen协整检验,然后展开碳排放量与GDP的脱钩分析。结果表明,12020年单位GDP碳排放量将比2005年降低61.49%,超过中国政府碳减排目标,中国将在2014年提前实现降低幅度为40%的碳减排目标;21984-2010年,碳排放量与GDP关系整体处于弱脱钩态势,表明中国经济增长在一定程度上带动了碳排放量的增长,但是经济增长速度大于碳排放量增长速度;3预测2010-2020年十年间中国弱脱钩的状态并没有改变,表明碳减排目标的实现并未改变经济增长与碳排放的弱脱钩状态。最后根据研究结论,提出未来的研究方向。
译 名：
Decoupling Analysis between Economic Growth and Carbon Emission under China Carbon Reduction Action:Based on the Predicted Values by DDEPM Model
作 者：
ZHANG Miao;ZHAO Zhen-guo;CHEN Yin-rong;College of Public Management,Huazhong Agricultural University;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University;
关键词：
carbon emission reduction target;;DDEPM model;;Johansen cointegration test;;decoupling analysis
摘 要：
The Chinese carbon emission and GDP from 1984 to 2020 were predicted based on DDEPM model, and Johansen Cointegration test of the predictive values was performed, then the decoupling analysis between carbon emission and GDP was conducted. The conclusions can be listed as follows: 1 The carbon emission per unit of GDP in 2020 would be lower61.49% than 2005, more than Chinese government carbon emission reduction target, and in 2014 China will achieve 40%carbon reduction target in advance. 2The relationship between carbon emission and GDP was in the weak decoupling state from 1980 to 2009, which showed Chinese economic growth have promoted carbon emission to a certain extent, but the speed of economic growth was higher than carbon emission. 3The weak decoupling state predicted from 2010 to 2020 do not change, which indicated the realization of carbon reduction target do not change the weak decoupling state between economic growth and carbon emission. At last, the future research direction based on above conclusions was put forward.
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