单 位：
中国科学院大学;中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所
关键词：
栎树猝死病;Hysplit模型;轨迹模拟
摘 要：
树流感(栎树猝死病)能导致大规模的寄主植被在短期内死亡。为了研究树流感的孢子传播,本文运用Hysplit前向轨迹模式和气象数据分别对美国加利福尼亚州2007年7月、2011年7月、2015年7月进行了持续1个月的轨迹模拟。将模拟结果和次年的树流感发生点进行叠加分析,结果表明,轨迹频率值大于10%的区域新发生树流感的点密度较大,模拟结果和次年的树流感发生点高度拟合。最后,本文运用同样方法对中国福建漳州港的4个假设发生点进行了1个月(2016年4月)的轨迹模拟。结果表明,树流感将会从漳州港传播到浙江、江西、广东等地,轨迹频率值大于20%的区域主要分布在福州到厦门的福建省沿海地区。
译 名：
Potential propagation path of sudden oak death in southeast China
作 者：
JIANG Hou-zhi;CAO Chun-xiang;State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science,Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth,Chinese Academy of Sciences;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;
关键词：
sudden oak death;;Hysplit model;;propagation path
摘 要：
Sudden oak death( SOD) could result in large area of host vegetation to die in a short time. To examine the spread of SOD spores,the Hysplit forward trajectory model and meteorological data were used to simulate their trajectory in July of 2007,2011 and 2015,in California,USA. Overlay analysis of the simulation results and SOD outbreak points in the next year showed that the region with a track frequency > 10% would have higher point density of the new occurrence of SOD. The simulated results and the next year's SOD outbreak points were highly fitted.Finally,we used the same method to simulate the trajectory of four hypothetical outbreak points of Zhangzhou Port in Fujian,China for a month( April 2016). The results showed that the SOD would spread from Zhangzhou Port to Zhejiang,Jiangxi and Guangdong. The areas with track frequency >20% mainly distributed in the coastal areas of Fuzhou to Xiamen.
