Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Potential SOD Outbreak Risks Area in the US West Coast Based on Maxent Model

Jiang Houzhi;Cao Chunxiang;Chen Wei;Dang Yongfeng;Wang Xuejun;Wang Wei;State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science,Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth,Chinese Academy of Sciences;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;Academy of Forest Inventory and Planning,State Forestry Administration;

Sudden Oak Death (SOD);;Maxent Model;;west coast of the United States;;spatio temporal analysis

Since the Sudden Oak Death (SOD) was found in the United States,it has caused a large number of trees death in California,and also spread to the State of Oregon.The study of SOD outbreak risk area could provide scientific basis for the SOD prevention and control and also is of great references value for China to prevent the similar forest diseases and pests.In its fifth assessment report,the IPCC identified four possible trends of future climate change scenarios based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emission patterns,namely RCP26,RCP45,RCP60 and RCP85.This paper predicted the risk area of SOD in the west coast of America in 2000,2050 and 2070 using the Maxent Model,based on current global vegetation cover data,past climate data and future climate data under the four emission scenarios.The results of spatio-temporal analysis of the predict showed that the high risk area of SOD will expand to the north and west of the west coast of the United States,and the expansion pattern under the different climate scenarios is different.Compared with that in 2000,the high-risk area under the RCP 85 in the west coast of the United States will increase by 174% in 2070.