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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 鲁西南近50年降水量和雨日雨强变化趋势 中国农业资源与区划 2014,35 (02) 29-34
Position: Home > Articles > PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST SHANDONG IN RECENT 50 YEARS AND THE VARIATION TREND OF RAINY DAYS AND RAININESS Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning 2014,35 (02) 29-34

鲁西南近50年降水量和雨日雨强变化趋势

作  者：
孙翠凤;窦坤;吴雷柱;徐国栋;张婷
单  位：
菏泽市气象局
关键词：
鲁西南;降水量;雨日;雨强;50年变化趋势
摘  要：
利用最小二乘法、Mann-Kendall方法分析近50年来鲁西南9县区降水量、雨日、雨强变化。结果表明:鲁西南中南部地区降水日数减少较北部明显;≥25.0mm、≥50.0mm、≥150.0mm平均降水日数均呈略增加趋势,≥100.0mm降水日数中北部呈减少趋势,南部呈增加趋势。各级平均降水日数均与年平均降水量显著相关,≥25.0mm降水日数与年降水量相关最为密切,说明从平均状况看,降水量的多少取决于降水日数的多少,特别是≥25.0mm降水日数的多少。平均最长连续降水和无降水日数均呈减少趋势。平均最大连续降水量以3.719 mm/10年的趋势减少(近30年以6.724mm/10年的趋势增加),平均最大日降水量以0.38mm/10年的趋势略增(近30年以4.904mm/10年的趋势增加)。平均1小时最大降水量以1.423mm/10年的趋势增加,平均10分钟最大降水量以0.707mm/10年的趋势增加。鲁西南年平均降水资源减少,年降水季节和空间分布明显,气候有"干化"变化趋势。降水日数减少但降水强度增加,短时强降水出现的月份集中且夜间出现频率接近50%,致使洪涝灾害防御任务更加艰巨,应做好气象灾害防御规划趋利避害。
译  名：
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST SHANDONG IN RECENT 50 YEARS AND THE VARIATION TREND OF RAINY DAYS AND RAININESS
作  者：
Sun Cuifeng;Dou Kun;Wu Leizhu;Xu Guodong;Zhang Ting;Heze Meteorological Bureau;
关键词：
the southwest of Shandong;;precipitation;;rainy days;;rainy intensity;;variation trend
摘  要：
Using the least square and Mann-Kendall method,this paper analyzed the characteristic of climate variation of precipitation,rainy days and rainy intensity in the southwest of Shandong province in recent 50 years. The resulted showed that: the rainy days decreased in central and southern were more than that in northern Shandong province; the days with average precipitation ≥25. 0mm,≥50. 0mm,≥150. 0mm showed a slightly increasing trend,but the number of days with precipitation ≥100. 0mm tended to decrease in North and increase in the South. The average number of days with precipitation levels were significantly correlated with mean annual precipitation,precipitation days with precipitation ≥25. 0mm significantly correlated with annual precipitation. The average longest continuous rainfall and non-rainfall days decreased. The average maximum continuous precipitation decreased to 3. 719 mm /10a trend,the average maximum daily precipitation amounted to an increase of 0. 38mm / 10a. An average of 1 hour's maximum precipitation increased to 1. 423mm /10a,and an average of 10 minutes maximum precipitation increased to 0. 707mm /10a. The average annual precipitation decreased which showed the climate was in a drier trend. The total precipitation days reduced but precipitation intensity increased,short-term strong precipitation happened in concentrated months and mostly in night,which resulted in more difficult in disaster prevention. The planning of meteorological protection should draw on the advantages and avoid disadvantages.

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