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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 汉江上游近50a来降水变化与暴雨洪水发生规律 水土保持通报 2012,32 (1) 19-25
Position: Home > Articles > Precipitation Change and Occurrence of Rainstorms and Floods in Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River During Last 50 Years Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation 2012,32 (1) 19-25

汉江上游近50a来降水变化与暴雨洪水发生规律

作  者：
殷淑燕;黄春长
单  位：
陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院
关键词：
汉江上游;降水量;暴雨;洪水;气候变化
摘  要：
使用EOF分解、滑动平均和线性回归趋势分析,对汉江上游流域1960—2009年逐月及全年降水量变化进行时空分析。结果表明,汉江上游在近50a来,年降水量在总体上呈现出减少的趋势。各月份降水量变化以4月和9月降水量减幅最大,而6月和8月降水量则有所增加。1980—1988年是汉江上游流域气候转型期。由于大气环流形势发生变化,春季和秋季西南季风环流减弱,夏季东南季风环流增强。西南季风在6—7月中旬和9月通常会在汉江上游造成暴雨洪水,该阶段降水量的减少,可能会导致洪水发生几率减小。东南季风在7月下旬和8月会在汉江上游造成暴雨洪水,此期间季风的增强,可能会使该阶段暴雨洪水的发生几率增大。这些结果对于指导汉江上游水资源水能源开发和防洪减灾具有重要的意义。
译  名：
Precipitation Change and Occurrence of Rainstorms and Floods in Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River During Last 50 Years
作  者：
YIN Shu-yan,HUANG Chun-chang(College of Tourism and Environmental Sciences,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi′an,Shaanxi 710062,China)
关键词：
upper reaches of the Hanjiang River;precipitation;rainstorm;flood;climatic change
摘  要：
Temporal and spatial changes of monthly/annual precipitation in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River were analyzed by using empirical orthogonal function,moving average,and linear regression analysis.Results showed that annual precipitation manifested a decreasing trend during the last 50 years on the whole.Monthly precipitation varied with a major decrease in April and September,but a slight increase in June and August.A major climatic shift occurred in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River from 1980 to 1988.The shift caused a change in atmospheric circulation pattern with a decreased intensity of southwest monsoon in spring and autumn and an increased intensity of southeast monsoon in summer.Southwest monsoon could induce rainstorms and floods from June to early-middle July and in September.In the periods,reduction in precipitation possibly caused a reduction in the occurrence of flood.Southeast monsoon could cause rainstorms and floods in the late July and August,in which the enhanced monsoon possibly cause an increase in the occurrence of rainstorm and flood.These findings are of great importance in water resources and energy development and flood mitigation in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River.

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