中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 中国农学会
Agricultural Information Institute of CAAS China Association of Agricultural Science Societies
En
Ch
中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 中国农学会 主办

AI检索

订阅

返回顶部
当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > Prophet时序模型在短期水质溶氧预测中的应用 渔业现代化 2020,47 (3) 29-35
Position: Home > Articles > Application of Prophet time series model in short-term prediction of dissolved oxygen in water Fishery Modernization 2020,47 (3) 29-35

Prophet时序模型在短期水质溶氧预测中的应用

作  者：
沈时宇;陈明
单  位：
关键词：
时间序列;溶氧预测;Prophet时序预测模型;支持向量回归
摘  要：
Prophet是Facebook开源的一种时间序列预测模型,擅长处理具有大异常值和趋势变化的日常周期数据。针对Prophet时序模型在短时间数据上预测精度较低的问题,提出了基于Prophet改进的Prophet_SVR模型对未来2 h内溶氧参数进行预测,并利用对比模型在相同数据上进行对比试验。试验结果通过均方根误差(E_(RMSE))和平均绝对百分比误差(E_(MAPE))进行对比。结果显示:Prophet_SVR模型的试验结果相对于Prophet时序模型E_(RMSE)下降0.197 1,E_(MAPE)下降3.890 4%。试验对比可知,Prophet_SVR预测模型在降低预测整体误差和提升单个数值预测精度上效果更优。该方法训练模型的时间更短、效率更高,为短期水质参数预测提供了参考。
译  名：
Application of Prophet time series model in short-term prediction of dissolved oxygen in water
作  者：
SHEN Shiyu;CHEN Ming;College of Information,Shanghai Ocean University,Key Laboratory of Fisheries Information,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs;
关键词：
time series;;dissolved oxygen prediction;;Prophet time series prediction model;;SVR
摘  要：
Prophet is a time series prediction model open sourced by Facebook.It is good at processing daily periodic data with large outliers and trend changes.Aiming at the problem that Prophet time series model has low prediction accuracy on short-term data,this paper proposes an improved Prophet_SVR model based on Prophet to predict dissolved oxygen parameters in the next 2 hours,and uses a comparative model to perform comparative experiments on the same data.The experimental results were compared by root mean square error(E_(RMSE)) and mean absolute percentage error(E_(MAPE)).The results show that Prophet SVR's E_(RMSE) and E_(MAPE) reduced by 0.197 1 and 3.890 4% respectively compared with Prophet model.Through experimental comparison,it can be seen that the Prophet_SVR prediction model is more effective in reducing the overall prediction error and improving the accuracy of a single numerical prediction,and the method can train the model in a shorter time and with higher efficiency,which provides a reference for short-term water quality parameter prediction.

相似文章

导出引用
计量
文章访问数: 8
HTML全文浏览量: 0
PDF下载量: 0

所属期刊

推荐期刊

友情链接Friendly link
农业信息研究所Agricultural information institute 农业智能知识服务平台Agricultural intelligent knowledge service platform 农业学术服务平台Agricultural Knowledge Service System 中国知网CNKI 维普网VIP 万方WANFANG DATA
联系我们Contact us

电话Tell：010-82109652-808

邮箱E-mail：agrijournal@caas.cn

服务Service
关于我们About us 意见建议Opinions and suggest
版权说明Copyright
单位：中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 中国农学会 © 2017中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 ICP备案号：京ICP备09089781号-46