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Position: Home > Articles > Annual Runoff Forecast Based on Wavelet-cloud Model Water Saving Irrigation 2014 (4) 56-59

基于小波云模型的年径流预澳

作  者:
程昌明;向杰
单  位:
重庆水利电力职业技术学院
关键词:
小波消噪;年径流;非一致性;云模型
摘  要:
为研究年径流的变化规律,采用小波理论和云模型相结合的方式建立预测模型.先运用小波分析对径流时间序列进行消噪,获得主时间序列,在此基础上对时间序列进行云推理,得到相应的预测值.以岷江流域年径流为例进行研究,通过与直接预测的方法相比较,发现此方法有较高的预测精度和推广应用价值.
译  名:
Annual Runoff Forecast Based on Wavelet-cloud Model
关键词:
wavelet de-noising%annual runoff%non-eonformanee%cloud model
摘  要:
In this paper, the annual runoff prediction model is established by using wavelet theory and the cloud model to improve the forecast accuracy. Firstly, the wavelet method is used for the de-noising of the time series to get the main time series. Then the cloud reasoning method is used to get corresponding prediction value. In the end, taking the annual runoff of Minjiang River basin as an example, through comparing the result of the above models with that of the direct-prediction method, it is found that the model has higher prediction accuracy and good spread prospect.

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