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Position: Home > Articles > Analysis on the Factors Affecting the Export Variation of Wood Furniture in China during 2005-2014 Forest Engineering 2017,33 (1) 41-46

2005-2014年中国木质家具出口变化影响因素分析

作  者：
韩月;吴金卓;刘澜
单  位：
湖南工学院;东北林业大学
关键词：
木质家具;出口贸易;恒定市场份额模型;分析
摘  要：
通过对中国木质家具2005-2014年的出口贸易数据进行分析,并采用改进的恒定市场份额模型(Constant Market Share Model)研究影响中国木质家具出口变化的因素以及各因素的影响程度。结果表明:在出口变化影响因素中,结构效应的影响最大(50.91%),其次是次级效应(26.84%)和竞争力效应(12.25%)。进一步分解结构效应可知,中国木质家具出口额逐年增长主要受世界木质家具贸易规模逐年扩大的影响。由竞争力分解可知,综合竞争效应为正值,特定竞争效应为负值,且正负抵消后仍为正值,表明中国木质家具在国际贸易中的竞争力逐渐增强,对我国木质家具的出口起到了推进的作用。从次级效应分解来看,动态结构效应的影响最大,表明我国木质家具出口竞争力与特定市场特定产品进口的交互作用对我国木质家具的出口产生了正向促进作用,在全球进口需求增加较快的商品市场上中国木质家具拥有较大的市场份额,中国木质家具的国际竞争力有所提高。
译  名：
Analysis on the Factors Affecting the Export Variation of Wood Furniture in China during 2005-2014
作  者：
Han Yue;Wu Jinzhuo;Liu Lan;College of Engineering and Technology,Northeast Forestry University;Hunan Institute of Technology;
关键词：
wood furniture;;export trade;;constant market share model;;analysis
摘  要：
Based on the export data of wood furniture in China between 2005 and 2014,the factors that affect the export of wood furniture were analyzed by the improved Constant Market Share Model( CMS). The results showed that the structural effect was the largest( 50. 91%),followed by second-order effect( 26. 84%) and competitiveness effect( 12. 25%) among the influencing factors. It is known from the further decomposition of structural effect that the continuous increase of wood furniture export was mainly affected by the expansion of wood furniture trade scale in China year by year. According to the decomposition results of competitive effect,it was positive for the general competitive effect and the final competitiveness,and was negative for the specific competitive effect. These results indicated that the export of wood furniture in China was gradually promoted by the competitiveness of wood furniture market. The decomposition results of second-order effect showed that it was the largest for dynamic structural effect,which indicated that the interaction between the wood furniture competitiveness and the positive effect of specific market import on the exports of wood furniture. Wood furniture occupied a larger market share in the fast growth import markets,and the international competitiveness of wood furniture was improved in China.

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