COORDINATION MEASURE ANALYSIS AND DYNAMICALLY PREDICT OF URBANIZATION AND SOUTH SUBTROPICAL AGRICULTURAL IN NANNING CITY

Shang Hailong;Faculty of Tourism, Kaili University;

urbanization and south subtropical agriculture;;composite system;;coordination development;;measure;;Nanning city

The purpose of this paper is to measure the coordinated development between urbanization and agriculture and analyze its evolutionary process, so as to provide references for the efficient utilization of advantages of urbanization development and optimization of agricultural ecosystems in urban areas. The coordinated measurement index system of the urbanization and south subtropical agricultural composite system was constructed, and the quantitative integrated measurement method was used to measure, judge, analyze, and dynamically predict the coordinated evolution process of urbanization and south subtropical agriculture in Nanning City from 2002 to 2016. The urbanization and south subtropical agricultural composite system in Nanning had experienced five development stages, namely "on the verge of imbalance, barely coordinated, primary coordination, intermediate coordination, and good coordination", and the degree of coordinated development increased at an average annual rate of 4.76%. Since 2007, the comprehensive benefits of urbanization subsystem in Nanning City had pulled ahead, but the tropical agricultural subsystem had lagged behind; the synchronization between urbanization subsystem and south subtropical agricultural subsystem was significant, with a correlation coefficient of 0.964 9, exhibiting an upward trend; it was estimated that from 2017 to 2021 the correlation coefficient between the urbanization subsystem and south subtropical agricultural subsystem would rise to 0.968 7, and the comprehensive benefits would also increase. The gap between these two subsystems would narrow from 0.232 1 to 0.173 2. There is a significant positive correlation between the urbanization subsystem and south subtropical agriculture subsystem in Nanning city, and the benefit coefficient increases significantly, indicating that the coordinated development is evolving in a positive direction. At present, the urbanization and the south subtropical agriculture composite system in Nanning city is the coordinated development stage with leading urbanization and lagging south subtropical agriculture; in the next 5 years, the gap between the comprehensive benefits of these two sub-systems in Nanning city will gradually narrow, and the contribution capacity of south subtropical agriculture to the improvement of urbanization level will increase.