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Position: Home > Articles > Catch prediction of chub mackerel in the East China Sea by using fish stock assessment expert system Journal of Fisheries of China 2001,25 (5) 469-473

应用渔业资源评估专家系统预测东海鲐年产量

作  者：
胡芬;陈卫忠
单  位：
中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所
关键词：
资源评估;专家系统;预测;鲐;年产量;东海区
摘  要：
利用渔业资源评估专家系统估算和预测了东海鲐年产量，实际的应用和对过去年产量的回顾预测都表明，该专家系统具一定的实用性，其预测产量与实际产量比较接近，平均预测精度为８７．８％，预测结果可供渔业生产和管理部门参考。从近十多年鲐的渔业生产和资源状况来看，鲐实际捕捞产量已接近我们所评估的现存资源量。同时，渔获物的组成以当龄鱼为绝对多数，小型化、低龄化现象明显，说明东海始资源已得到充分利用，并开始出现过度利用的迹象，资源前景并不乐观。
译  名：
Catch prediction of chub mackerel in the East China Sea by using fish stock assessment expert system
作  者：
HU Fen, CHEN Wei-zhong (East China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Shanghai 200090, China)
关键词：
stock assessment; expert system; prediction; chub mackerel; annual catch; East China Sea
摘  要：
The catch of chub mackerel in the East China Sea was predicted by using fish stock assessment expert system. The result showed that the predicted catches were close to actual catches. The average prediction accuracy was 87. 8%. The predicted catches would be useful to fishing companies and fisheries management departments. However, by comparing the annual catches with the estimated stock size, we found they were rather close. Meanwhile, sampling study showed an increasing trend of the low age and small size individuals in catches of the recent years. Catches were absolutely dominated by the underyearling now. All these showed that the chub mackerel had been fully exploited, even overexploited. There would be no big space for further exploitation of this species.

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