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当前位置: 首页 > 文章 > 基于EMD的平朔矿区生态承载力变化及动力学预测分析 内蒙古农业大学学报(自然科学版) 2014 (5) 63-68
Position: Home > Articles > ANALYSIS OF ECOLOGICAL CARRYING CAPACITY CHANGE AND DYNAMIC PREDICTION INPINGSHUO MINING BASED ON EMPIRICAL MODE DECOMPOSITION Journal of Inner Mongolia Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition) 2014 (5) 63-68

基于EMD的平朔矿区生态承载力变化及动力学预测分析

作  者：
薛建春
单  位：
内蒙古科技大学经济管理学院
关键词：
生态承载力;经验模态分解;平朔矿区
摘  要：
生态承载力研究是可持续发展科学领域里关注的热点问题,它受到人口、土地、科技、消费等众多社会、经济和自然因素的影响,在时间和空间上具有多尺度特征。本文在计算平朔矿区1989~2010年人均EC的基础上,采用EMD和动力学预测方法,研究矿区人均EC的长时间序列演化规律,研究结果表明,矿区人均生态承载力存在一个5.293年左右和3.024年左右的准周期波动,从人均EF波动的趋势量分布来看,1989年以来平朔矿区的人均生态承载力不断下降,且年平均下降率为0.8272%,1997年开始出现生态赤字,到2010年人均生态赤字达到0.57141hm2/cap。建立动力学模型预测矿区未来10年的人均EC变化,可以发现,虽然矿区人均EC依然呈下降趋势,但年均下降率减缓,模型预测2020年平朔矿区人均生态承载力为1.70438hm2/cap;此项研究有助于了解矿区未来资源的利用情况和区域生态压力面临的问题,为有关部门制定和实施相应的可持续发展战略措施提供理论参考。
译  名：
ANALYSIS OF ECOLOGICAL CARRYING CAPACITY CHANGE AND DYNAMIC PREDICTION INPINGSHUO MINING BASED ON EMPIRICAL MODE DECOMPOSITION
作  者：
XUE Jianchun;School of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology;
关键词：
Ecological carrying capacity;;empirical mode decomposition;;Pingshuo mining
摘  要：
Ecological carrying capacity research is the focus in the scientific field about sustainable development. It is influenced by population、land、technology consumer and many other social、economic and natural factors. with muli- scale characteristics in time and space. This paper calculated the EC per capita from 1989 to 2010,used EMD and dynamic prediction,researched the long time series evolution of EC per capita in mining area. The results showed that the EC per capita in mining area had a 5. 293 years period and a 3. 024 years period. Looked from the trend quantity of fluctuate of EC per capita. The EC per capita continuous dropped in Pingshuo mine since 1989. And the average annual decline rate was 0. 8272%. There was the ecological deficit since 1997,The EC per capita was 0. 5714hm2 / cap in 2010. Established the dynamics model to predict the trend of EC per capita for the next 10 years.The predicted results showed that the average annual decline rate slowed down although the EC per capita still dropped. The model predicted that the EC per capita of Pingshuo mine is 1. 70438hm2 / cap in 2020. The research was contributed to understand the utilization of mine resources and the problem of regional ecological pressure. Provided theoretical reference for building the sustainable development measures for relevant departments.

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