作 者：
苏灿霞;初雯雯;撇力扎提·巴哈提别克;江晓珩;陈艳秋;黄文溥;马驰;初红军
关键词：
蒙新河狸;MaxEnt模型;适宜生境区;乌伦古河上游
摘 要：
蒙新河狸(Castor fiber birulai)在我国仅分布于新疆阿勒泰地区的乌伦古河流域,研究蒙新河狸潜在适生区的分布对该物种的保护具有重要意义.使用2021-2022年野外实地调查收集的97个蒙新河狸家族分布位点,结合28个环境因子,利用MaxEnt模型预测不同气候情景下新疆乌伦古河上游蒙新河狸适宜生境区的分布.结果表明:影响蒙新河狸适宜生境分布的主要环境因子是距道路距离(0.1~1 km)、距水渠距离(小于3km)、土地覆盖类型(河流、湿地与林地)、海拔(1000 m左右)、最湿月雨量(22~25 mm)与温度季节性变动系数(1500以上)的影响.当前蒙新河狸适宜生境沿乌伦古河上游河流紧密分布、区域狭窄.在2050s(ssp585气候情景)与2070s(ssp126气候情景)期间高适生区分别与当前持平或增加,未来两种气候情景较当前蒙新河狸适宜生境面积均有所降低,适宜生境降低的区域基本相似.本研究结果为气候变化影响下的蒙新河狸的保护与管理提供参考依据.
译 名：
Potential distribution changes of Castor fiber birulai under climate changes in the upper reaches of the Ulungur River,Xinjiang
关键词：
Castor fiber birulai%MaxEnt model%suitable habitat region%the upper Ulungur River
摘 要：
Castor fiber birulai is primarily distributed in the Ulungu river basin in China.Therefore,investigating the potential distribution of suitable regions is crucial for the conservation of C.f.birulai.A total of 97 distribu-tion sites of C.f.birulai and 28 environmental factors collected from 2021 to 2022 were used to predict the distri-bution of suitable habitat regions for this species under different climatic scenarios using the MaxEnt model.Re-sults showed that the distribution of suitable habitats was mainly affected by the distance from major roads(0.1-1 km),distance from water channel(within 100 m),landcover type(river,wetland,and forest),altitude(approximately 1000 m),mean temperature of wettest quarter(22-25 mm),and the standard deviation factor of seasonal tempera-ture change(above 1500).In the 2050s(2041-2060,ssp585 climate scenario)and 2070s(2061-2080,ssp126 cli-mate scenario),the high suitability area was the same or slightly increased compared with the current situation,and the area of suitable habitat,which decreased in the two future climate scenarios,was the same.The results of this study can provide a reference point for the protection and management of C.f.birulaiunder climate changes.
