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Position: Home > Articles > Construction of Index System for Early-warning of Major Animal Epidemic Diseases by Delphi Method China Animal Health Inspection 2016,40 (3) 77-80

德菲尔法构建重大动物疫病预警指标体系

作  者：
李沛丽;张华;李涛;周碧君;徐秋星;程振涛;王开功;文明;温贵兰;冯旭芳
单  位：
贵州省六盘水市农业委员会;贵州省农业委员会;贵州大学动物科学学院
关键词：
重大动物疫病;预警体系;德菲尔法;组合权重法
摘  要：
[目的 ]构建重大动物疫病暴发流行预警指标体系。[方法 ]以禽流感和口蹄疫为例,采用文献调研法和德菲尔专家咨询法中的专家会议法初拟重大动物疫病预警体系的框架和指标;应用德菲尔专家咨询法评价预警指标的重要性、可操作性;应用组合权重法比较各指标综合影响的大小,并将指标分类。[结果 ]筛选出禽流感和口蹄疫预警预报一级指标6项(易感动物、饲养管理和免疫情况等)以及二级指标14项(免疫效果、环境消毒、温度等),并将指标分为三类(关键指标、重要指标和一般指标)。[结论 ]初步构建了重大动物疫病暴发流行预警指标体系。
译  名：
Construction of Index System for Early-warning of Major Animal Epidemic Diseases by Delphi Method
作  者：
Li Peili;Zhang Hua;Li Tao;Zhou Bijun;Xiu Qiuxing;Cheng Zhentao;Wang Kaigong;Wen Ming;Wen Guilan;Feng Xufang;College of Animal Science,Guizhou University;The Agricultural Committee of Guizhou Province;Key Laboratory for Animal Disease and Veterinary Public Health of Guizhou Province;Liupanshui Agricultural Committee of Guizhou Province;
关键词：
major animal epidemic;;early-warning;;Delphi method;;combined weights
摘  要：
[Objective]To establish an early-warning indicator system on occurrence of major animal epidemic disease. [Methods]Literature review and experts consensus were used to formulate early warning system framework and indicators of FMD and AI. The importance,maneuverability and expert opinions of early warning system indicators were confirmed by Delphi expert consultation. Furthermore, comprehensive influence of all indicators were compared and classified with CW(Combined Weights). [Results]Six first-level(susceptible animals,Feeding and management & Meteorological factors)and 14 second-level indicators(immune effect,environmental disinfection,temperature,etc)were determined, and three classes of indicators(key,important and normal)were divided based on the importance and maneuverability.[Conclusion]The early-warning indicator system of FMD and AI outbreaks were initially established.

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