单 位：
江西省气象服务中心;江西省南昌市气象局;江西省气候中心
关键词：
秋季降水;时间变化;空间分布特征;环流特征;江西
摘 要：
为了研究江西近55年秋季(9—11月)降水的时间空分布及其异常环流形势特征,利用1961—2015年共55年86个气象站逐日降水资料及NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料,采用EOF、REOF分析、Morlet小波分析、趋势分析、M-K突变检验和合成分析等方法,研究江西近55年秋季降水的时间变化规律、空间分布特征及旱涝年的环流特征。结果表明:近55年来江西秋季降水呈弱增长趋势,在1981年、1984年和1987年发生突变,存在12~14年和2~4年的周期。空间场可分为全省一致型,南—北相反型和南北—中部相反型,其中全省一致型为主要空间分布形式。江西秋季降水可分为5个区域:一区(赣北中西部)、三区(赣中西部)和五区(赣中中东部)秋季降水呈增多趋势,二区(赣南)秋季降水呈减少趋势;四区(赣东北)秋季降水变化趋势较为稳定。5个区域秋季降水都存在2~4年左右的周期变化,还有多个区域都存在4~6年左右的周期变化,最长周期为14年左右。此外,江西秋季旱年,欧洲东部500 h Pa的大槽加强,江西850 h Pa处东北风距平中,降水偏少;反之,降水偏多。
译 名：
Autumn Precipitation in Jiangxi:Temporal and Spatial Distribution and Anomaly Circulation Features in Recent 55 Years
作 者：
Que Zhiping;Wu Fan;Wu Feifei;Ma Fengmin;Meteorological Service Center of Jiangxi;Municipal Meteorological Bureau of Nanchang;Provincial Climate Center of Jiangxi;
关键词：
autumn precipitation;;temporal change;;spatial distribution characteristics;;circulation features;;Jiangxi
摘 要：
Based on the daily precipitation data of 86 meteorological stations in Jiangxi and the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data from 1961 to 2015, the temporal and spatial distribution of autumn precipitation andanomaly circulation features in Jiangxi in recent 55 years were analyzed by using the EOF, REOF, Morletwavelet, linear trend, Mann-Kendall analysis and composite analysis methods. The results showed that: theautumn precipitation in Jiangxi presented an weak growth trend during the 55 years; abrupt changes appearedin 1981, 1984 and 1987, respectively; there were a long changing period of 12-14 years and a short changingperiod of 2-4 years; the space filed of autumn precipitation in Jiangxi was divided into the overall consistencytype, the south-north inverting type and the south with north-middle inverting type, and the overallconsistency type was the main form of it; spatially, it could be subdivided into the following 5 regions: mid-west of north Jiangxi, south of Jiangxi, west of central Jiangxi, east of north Jiangxi and mid-east of centralJiangxi; autumn precipitation was increasing in mid-west of north Jiangxi, west of central Jiangxi and mid-east of central Jiangxi, while decreasing in south of Jiangxi, and stable in mid-east of central Jiangxi; differentabrupt change periods appeared in all 5 regions during the 55 years, and abrupt changes appeared in early1960 s in the region of south of Jiangxi, west of central Jiangxi, and east of north Jiangxi; there was a changingperiod of 2-4 years in all the 5 regions and a changing period of 4-6 years in several regions; the longestchanging period was 14 years. In addition, the circulation features of flood years and drought years showed thatwhen the trough in the east of Europe at 500 h Pa became stronger, and Jiangxi was controlled by northwestwind, besides, northeast anomaly wind at 850 h Pa controlled Jiangxi and weak southwest anomaly windappeared over Jiang-Huai Basin, the precipitation in autumn was less than that in the same period of normalyears, resulting in drought years of Jiangxi. While, when the circulation patterns were contrary to the patterns mentioned above, there was more precipitation in autumn than in the same period of normal years.
